#比特币现货交易量新低 From the perspective of the four-year cycle pattern, Bitcoin may bottom out in October of this year. So far, Bitcoin is still trading above the 200-week moving average and the realized price.
Today is Thursday, April 30, 2026. As market expectations suggest, the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate level, which is also Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Chair. The nominee for the next Chair, Kevin Wash, nominated by Trump, has gained support from the Senate Banking Committee and is entering the full Senate vote process. If there are no major surprises, he will take over as Chair next month.
Powell’s overall tone at the press conference was cautious rather than dovish, and keeping rates unchanged within the current range was not unexpected. More importantly, uncertainty about the policy path is increasing. Powell’s assessment of the economy remains resilient, with no urgent need for rate cuts in the short term. He also clearly mentioned that energy prices and tariffs are significant components of current inflation. After all, negotiations between the US and Iran have yet to make substantial progress, and no real breakthroughs have been achieved.
Geopolitical risks continue to spill over, and in this context, concerns about transportation security around the Strait of Hormuz have rapidly intensified, pushing up the risk premium in the global energy markets. Crude oil prices have risen sharply, once again breaking through the psychological threshold of $100. From a market sentiment perspective, the recent high above $79,000 quickly caused market enthusiasm to overheat. According to sentiment data, especially for Bitcoin and SOL, this has been the strongest FOMO wave in recent months.
The ratio of bullish to bearish comments on Bitcoin has reached 1.38:1; for SOL, it’s even more exaggerated, at 2.98:1. In other words, among those discussing SOL, the bullish voices are nearly three times the bearish ones. The sentiment structure indicates that retail investors’ optimism is rapidly heating up, even showing signs of chasing the rally.
The market tends to punish overly consensus expectations. When the proportion of retail bullishness rises quickly, it suggests that many short-term funds have already entered early, and some only chased in after prices started rising. If subsequent prices can continue to break out strongly, this FOMO could be further ignited, leading to a momentum-driven acceleration. But if Bitcoin encounters resistance at a key level and cannot push higher, these newly optimistic investors will become very vulnerable. Once prices fall back, their greed-driven emotions will quickly turn into panic selling.
Spot ETF outflows have continued for the third consecutive day, and short-term holders’ confidence has not truly recovered; in fact, they remain in a very fragile and easily shaken state. Looking at the total amount transferred to exchanges, near Bitcoin’s short-term highs, short-term holders have actually accelerated their transfers into exchanges. This indicates that many are not holding out for a long-term bullish outlook but are treating this rally as an opportunity to exit the market, cut losses, or take profits.
Particularly notable are three very high peaks, with 65,000, 54,600, and 39,000 Bitcoin transferred into exchanges in a single day by short-term holders, totaling nearly 150k BTC over three days. This is not small-scale profit-taking by retail investors but a clear signal of concentrated selling pressure. This may also explain why the cost basis of short-term holders has dropped so rapidly recently, now below $79,000.
On the realized price line, it is only slightly above $78,000, and in the coming days, we may see a death cross, which is a bearish pattern. Perhaps in the next few months, the price will retest the 200-week moving average support. On the surface, a rebound might improve market sentiment, leading many to believe that the chips are stabilizing and investor confidence is returning. But on-chain data shows that short-term holders are not that firm. Especially when facing resistance at a key level, some short-term traders chased the rally, with cost bases closer to the current price and weaker psychological resilience.
From the four-year cycle perspective, Bitcoin may bottom out in October this year. So far, Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average and the realized price. What we are more concerned about is that the cost basis of long-term holders is also rising rapidly, approaching $48,000, with three lines still converging. If, as in past cycles, Bitcoin’s spot market price falls below these three lines, it will be the moment to confidently buy the dip.
This cycle of Bitcoin shows a different rhythm from previous ones. It’s not the frantic surge, extreme overheating, a final big bullish candle topping out, followed by a sharp decline and clear bottom signals. The aSOPR essentially reflects whether the market’s spent coins are in profit or loss. In past cycles, when the market entered the late bull phase, aSOPR would show a sharp profit realization, with the green profit zone soaring, indicating extreme euphoria. When prices then collapsed, the red loss zone would give clear capitulation signals. But this cycle is different; the continuous inflow of ETF and institutional funds has changed the market structure. Prices are not driven solely by retail FOMO inflating the bubble to the limit, but by repeated tug-of-war between institutional buying, liquidity changes, and phased adjustments.
Especially for Bitcoin, the price has risen in several stages, forming multiple rapid rises and falls, with a pattern of rising while digesting. So, is it unnecessary to wait for a perfect bottom signal identical to past cycles? It’s hard to say. It’s also possible that the bottom for Bitcoin is that $60k level. This rally itself has not shown the explosive overheating of previous cycles, and the aSOPR peaks have been decreasing each round, indicating that the strength of profit realization is weakening each time. Since the upward cycle isn’t as extreme, the downward cycle may not produce the same extreme panic or capitulation bottom as before. In other words, it may be more difficult for major players or market makers to wipe out the market through deep dumps as they did in the past. The presence of ETF funds, institutional allocations, and long-term holders acts as a buffer. From a weekly chart perspective, the structure remains weak. If a downtrend continues, resistance levels will shift lower, roughly similar to the 50-week moving average. The key moving average defining a bull market needs to gradually shift downward and flatten out. On the monthly chart, the MACD histogram is lightening, but it’s uncertain whether the $65,600 level can hold in the future.
In theory, past bear markets tend to break below trend support lines, transitioning into deeper bear phases. But over the past three months, there has been no real breakdown. Today is the last day of April, and it’s likely to close above $65,600. All we can do now is wait patiently. Previously, we saw data from cryptoquanta indicating that Bitcoin’s current rally is still primarily driven by the futures market, not genuine spot demand. Only when we see a real shift—especially if Grayscale’s holdings start to reduce and move away from negative territory—will the trend truly change.
From historical experience, Bitcoin’s bear market usually ends and transitions into a healthy bull cycle when two conditions are met: one, demand in the futures market recovers, shown by increasing open interest and funding rates returning to reasonable levels; and two, more importantly, spot demand also rebounds, meaning sustained net inflows and increasing real buying activity. When both variables turn positive, the market shifts from a speculative, fund-driven environment to a demand-driven rally. Currently, only the former has been fulfilled; futures demand is warming or even overheating, while spot demand remains in recovery or even weak, making the structure still somewhat unstable.
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