#CrudeOilPriceRose #原油价格上涨
Who's Winning, Who's Losing?
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February. 20% of the world's oil and 25% of its LNG are locked there. This isn't a "Middle East crisis," it's a heart attack at the heart of the global supply chain. I'm opening up the most frequently asked question in Gate Square with clear data: Who was directly hit, who indirectly, who is the hidden winner?
✨ The Four Horsemen of Asia
89.2% of the crude oil passing through Hormuz goes to Asia. The distribution is brutal:
🔹China 37.7% — taking one out of every three barrels
🔹India 14.7%
🔹South Korea 12.0%
🔹Japan 10.9%
🧐These four countries control 75% of the total flow and 59% of the LNG. Japan and South Korea are the most vulnerable because their domestic production is almost zero.
✨Socio-economic cost: 🕵️
🔹India's strategic reserve lasts 40-45 days. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two weeks, the import bill will increase by 30%, and inflation will return to double digits.
🔹Refineries in Japan and South Korea have reduced capacity, and electricity prices have risen by 22%. The Seoul government has turned to Saudi Arabia and Oman, but these routes are 12 days longer.
🔹China continues to purchase from Iran using "shadow tankers," but insurance premiums have increased fivefold. This means a diesel shortage in the domestic market.
✨The Gulf is bleeding
🧐The Strait of Hormuz is the throat not only of buyers but also of sellers:
🔹Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Iran conduct 90% of their exports through this strait.
After the closure, Middle Eastern exports fell by 60%, and some producers reduced production by 20-70%.
🔹The Iranian paradox: It keeps 160-183 million barrels of oil floating at sea, providing it with revenue until August 2026. So, by closing the strait, it is suffocating both the world and itself, but there is a short-term cash flow.
🕵️Goldman's note: If the strait opens, Gulf production will recover in a few months, but the loss of confidence is permanent.
✨ Europe and Emerging Asia
The EU appears small on the list with a 3.8% share, but refinery margins have increased by 40%. Diesel queues have started in Germany and Italy.
Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand — dependent on Hormuz LNG. Power outages are reported in these countries in 2026.
🔹Macro impact: According to the Dallas Fed, closing the strait pushed WTI to $98 and reduced non-US real GDP by 2.9% in Q2 2026. This is a shock 3-5 times bigger than past crises. 9122
✨ The US and Latin America
Here's the other side of the story:
🔹US energy exports hit a record high. Asian and European buyers turned to US crude oil and LNG instead of the Strait of Hormuz, exports increased by 30% annually.
🔹Latin America — especially Argentina, Brazil, Mexico — took on the role of "reliable supplier." According to a Columbia University report, the region became a geopolitical energy hub with the Hormuz crisis.
But it's not free: Domestic fuel prices rose in Latin America, and public protests increased. So there are gains, but at a social cost.
✨ Seller-Buyer Balance — The New Map
Previously: The Gulf sells, Asia buys.
Now:
🔹Sellers: US, Brazil, Guyana, Norway (short-term winners)
🔹Buyers: China, India, Japan, South Korea (forced to buy regardless of price)
Losers: Gulf producers (loss of revenue), 🔹EU industry (margin crunch)
🤔The balance is disrupted because insurance companies added a war premium to every barrel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This premium has become more expensive than the oil itself.
My Conclusion
This is not an oil crisis, it's a logistical sovereignty crisis. As a crypto investor, I'm looking at three things:
As long as oil stays above $105, the fear of inflation will keep the Fed hawkish, Bitcoin will struggle to break $79K. As US LNG exports increase, the dollar will strengthen, and risky assets will be suppressed in the short term. But capital rotation has begun. Asian funds are talking about Bitcoin as a "digital reserve" for energy security. Of the $2 billion that flowed into ETFs in April, 40% originated from Asia.
My position: I'm not long on oil, I'm longing on the fear of oil. For every week that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, I increase the weight of BTC in my portfolio by 5%. Because history tells us: when physical straits close, digital straits open.
If the world learns to live without the Strait of Hormuz, where do you think the next energy war will break out?
$XBRUSD
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