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Ethereum Bulls Face Critical Test as Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Develops on OBV
OBV forms a head-and-shoulders pattern with support near 12.25M, suggesting risk of bearish pressure if broken.
Ethereum trades within an ascending triangle, with $4,800 acting as the key breakout level for continuation.
MACD crossover shows bullish momentum, with predictions pointing toward potential expansion into the $18,000–$20,000 range.
Ethereum shows a sharp contrast between momentum signals and potential reversal risks. On Balance Volume (OBV), a tool for tracking cumulative buying and selling pressure, is showing a notable head and shoulders pattern
According to IncomeSharks, bulls must defend current levels to invalidate this bearish outlook. At the same time, analyst Merlijn The Trader says bullish indicators are forming on the MACD and long term price action
He says Ethereum is nearing what he describes as an “ignition point.” This conflict between weakening accumulation patterns and rising bullish momentum shows a decisive phase for Ethereum’ price movement.
OBV Shows Bearish Pressure Building
OBV readings fluctuated between 9 million and 11 million from May to July, showing modest accumulation without clear directional strength. In late July, the indicator surged from 11 million to above 12.25 million, showing heavy buying pressure and renewed market strength
Ethereum price chart, Source: IncomeSharks on X
However, subsequent moves formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder near 12.7 million, the head at 13 million, and the right shoulder slightly below 12.75 million. OBV is on a rising neckline around 12.25 million
A decisive drop below this level could indicate distribution and weaken the bullish case. On the other hand, a recovery above 12.75 million to 13 million would cancel the bearish formation and restore accumulation strength.
Ascending Triangle Formation
While OBV leans toward caution, price structure presents a different picture. Ethereum has consolidated within a broad ascending triangle, with a horizontal barrier near $4,800. This zone has historically acted as strong resistance, most notably during the 2021 bull cycle.
A breakout above this level would represent a major technical shift. The latest attempt suggests momentum is building, supported by a rising trendline that has contained price for several months. Sustaining gains above $4,800 could redefine long term outlooks.
MACD Crossover and Renewed Momentum
Merlijn The Trader points to the MACD as a central bullish signal. A fresh crossover recently formed, resembling the setup seen in late 2020. During that period, Ethereum surged from under $400 to above $4,800 within months.
ETH/USD 1-month price chart, Source: Merlijn The Trader on X
The histogram has also turned positive, showing increasing upside momentum. If this alignment holds, Ethereum could first retest $4,800 before pushing higher. Chart projections highlight possible expansion toward the $18,000–$20,000 range if momentum sustains. This scenario would resemble past exponential rallies, though market confirmation remains essential.
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