Is ETH breaking through or experiencing false breakouts? $4,500 becomes the key battleground for bulls and bears, with increasing divergence among traders.
Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.5% on September 4, briefly approaching $4,500 after sweeping liquidity of $4,200 in early trading this week. The technical analysis shows that ETH has formed a bullish divergence on the four-hour chart and has broken out of a falling wedge pattern that lasted for two weeks—this is generally seen as a signal for a continuation of the uptrend. However, there remains a significant divide among traders regarding whether this breakout is definitive.
Technical Analysis: $4,500 is a key threshold
(Source: Trading View)
From a technical perspective, for ETH to confirm an upward trend, the daily closing price needs to stabilize above $4,500. Once it stands firm, it is expected to open the door to the external liquidity area between $4,800 and $5,000.
Support levels: $4,500 (key), $4,100 (range low)
Resistance levels: $4,800, $5,000
Market commentator Jelle is optimistic about the breakout, stating "waiting for price discovery."
(Source: Trading View)
However, crypto trader Popeye reminds that ETH is still in a wide range of fluctuations, "unless the price gains acceptance above the volume node, it is difficult to consider it an effective breakout."
Spot pushes, futures observe
Derivative data shows that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot demand:
Futures open interest: no significant increase, leveraged funds remain cautious.
Spot trading volume: increases as prices rise
Financing rate: close to neutral, consistent with the 30-day average
This means that natural buying pressure in the market is driving up prices, but without the support of futures leverage, if momentum weakens, the breakout may be difficult to sustain.
Market Outlook: If it cannot hold above $4,500, it may test $4,100
In the short term, $4,500 is the dividing line for ETH bulls and bears:
If it stabilizes: it is expected to confirm breakthrough momentum and challenge 4,800~5,000 USD.
If it loses support: it may drop below $4,100 and return to range-bound fluctuations.
Conclusion
The current technical structure of ETH and the spot buying power indeed support further upward movement, but the cautious attitude of the futures market and the divergence in capital flow cast uncertainty over this breakout. For traders, a daily close above $4,500 will be a key signal to determine a true breakout versus a false breakout.
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Is ETH breaking through or experiencing false breakouts? $4,500 becomes the key battleground for bulls and bears, with increasing divergence among traders.
Ethereum (ETH) rose 3.5% on September 4, briefly approaching $4,500 after sweeping liquidity of $4,200 in early trading this week. The technical analysis shows that ETH has formed a bullish divergence on the four-hour chart and has broken out of a falling wedge pattern that lasted for two weeks—this is generally seen as a signal for a continuation of the uptrend. However, there remains a significant divide among traders regarding whether this breakout is definitive.
Technical Analysis: $4,500 is a key threshold
(Source: Trading View)
From a technical perspective, for ETH to confirm an upward trend, the daily closing price needs to stabilize above $4,500. Once it stands firm, it is expected to open the door to the external liquidity area between $4,800 and $5,000.
Support levels: $4,500 (key), $4,100 (range low)
Resistance levels: $4,800, $5,000
Market commentator Jelle is optimistic about the breakout, stating "waiting for price discovery."
(Source: Trading View)
However, crypto trader Popeye reminds that ETH is still in a wide range of fluctuations, "unless the price gains acceptance above the volume node, it is difficult to consider it an effective breakout."
Spot pushes, futures observe
Derivative data shows that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot demand:
Futures open interest: no significant increase, leveraged funds remain cautious.
Spot trading volume: increases as prices rise
Financing rate: close to neutral, consistent with the 30-day average
This means that natural buying pressure in the market is driving up prices, but without the support of futures leverage, if momentum weakens, the breakout may be difficult to sustain.
Market Outlook: If it cannot hold above $4,500, it may test $4,100
In the short term, $4,500 is the dividing line for ETH bulls and bears:
If it stabilizes: it is expected to confirm breakthrough momentum and challenge 4,800~5,000 USD.
If it loses support: it may drop below $4,100 and return to range-bound fluctuations.
Conclusion
The current technical structure of ETH and the spot buying power indeed support further upward movement, but the cautious attitude of the futures market and the divergence in capital flow cast uncertainty over this breakout. For traders, a daily close above $4,500 will be a key signal to determine a true breakout versus a false breakout.