XRP Spot ETF may open the main street channel! BTC holds steady at $111,000, and the dual coin market is迎關鍵時刻.

With the U.S. Court of Appeals officially concluding the SEC's four-and-a-half-year legal battle with Ripple, market focus swiftly shifted to the potential approval of the XRP Spot ETF and the possible impact of this move on breaking the historical high of $3.66. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around $111,000, with inflows into Spot ETFs boosting market sentiment, but both bulls and bears are still waiting for key U.S. economic data and regulatory signals.

XRP: Legal Victory and ETF Catalyst

The U.S. Court of Appeals approved the withdrawal of the SEC's appeal against Ripple, meaning that Judge Torres' ruling in 2023 officially takes effect—XRP's programmatic sales do not constitute securities.

CryptoLaw founder John E. Deaton stated that the over 2,000 pieces of evidence submitted by the XRP community played a crucial role in the ruling and directly influenced the affidavits and oral arguments cited by the judge.

This ruling has cleared the legal obstacles for the XRP spot ETF application. Market observers believe that if the ETF is approved, it will become the key catalyst for driving XRP back to 3 dollars or even surpassing its historical high.

Main Street Access and Crypto ETF Framework

This week, the CFTC and SEC issued a joint statement signaling support for cryptocurrency innovation and consumer protection.

Nate Geraci, the President of NovaDius Wealth Management, commented that this could be a precursor to the standardization framework for cryptocurrency spot ETFs. In the future, it may not only be listed on major exchanges like the NYSE and NASDAQ but could also enter traditional brokerage platforms, opening up the "Main Street access" and allowing more traditional investors to directly allocate XRP and other crypto assets.

XRP Price Outlook: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

(Source: Trading View)

Bullish scenario: ETF approval, Ripple receiving a US chartered bank license, blue-chip companies incorporating XRP into reserve assets, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act, SWIFT's market share being eroded by Ripple → Target to break through 3.6606 USD historical high.

Bearish scenario: Legislative obstacles, weak demand for blue chips, OCC denies bank licenses, SEC does not approve ETF, SWIFT maintains its advantage → may fall back to the support level of 2.5 USD.

BTC: ETF Fund Inflows and Institutional Actions

Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $332.8 million on September 2, reversing the trend of a net outflow of $749.2 million in August.

Main inflows include:

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust: +28.8 million USD

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund: +9.8 million USD

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF: -27.9 million USD (net outflow)

At the same time, Strategy (MSTR) has increased its holdings by 4,048 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 636,505 BTC, solidifying its position as the publicly traded company with the highest amount of holdings in the world. The market speculates that MSTR may be included in the S&P 500 index, indirectly allowing more passive investors to have exposure to BTC.

BTC Price Outlook: Data and Regulation are Key

Bullish Scenario: Weak U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, continuous inflow into ETFs, bipartisan support for the CLARITY Act → Target challenge at $123,731 historic high.

Bearish scenario: Strong US data, Federal Reserve hawkishness, ETF outflows, legislative hurdles → Possible retracement to the psychological support of $100,000.

In the short term, the market will focus on data such as the ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Report, and Initial Jobless Claims, as these figures will directly impact interest rate cut expectations and the performance of risk assets.

Conclusion

XRP and BTC are currently at a critical turning point:

XRP: Legal risks have been resolved, and the ETF framework may open the Main Street channel, becoming a core catalyst for the next wave of market trends.

BTC: ETF fund inflows and institutional accumulation support the price, but it still needs to break through the $115,000 mark to open up upward space.

For investors, the regulatory developments and U.S. economic data over the coming weeks will determine whether these two major assets can usher in a new wave of bullish momentum.