"Fed's megaphone": Core commodity prices are expected to decline in August PCE, but actually rise in CPI.

On September 12, Nick Timiraos, a reporter from The Wall Street Journal known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," stated on social media that due to significant price declines in several categories of goods in August, which have a higher weight in PCE than in CPI, a larger gap or "wedge difference" formed between last month's core PCE and core CPI. Analysts projecting PCE based on CPI and PPI data expect that the core inflation indicator favored by the Fed increased by approximately 0.20% month-over-month last month (compared to 0.35% for CPI), which would keep the 12-month annual rate at 2.9%. Notably, it is expected that core commodity prices in August PCE saw a decline—while this part actually rose in CPI. Overall prices are expected to rise 0.24% month-over-month, pushing the 12-month annual rate up to 2.7%.