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🚨US TREASURIES ARE SELLING OFF:
The US 30-year Treasury yield is up to 5.018%, crossing above the critical 5% threshold for the first time since July.
This comes as crude oil surged on fresh Middle East attacks on energy infrastructure, stoking inflation fears, while the US Treasury on Monday raised its Q2 borrowing estimate to $189 billion, up from $109 billion projected in February.
Furthermore, the market is pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike by April 2027.
A sustained break above 5%, or a breach of the 2023 peak of 5.17%, would push US long-term yields into a trading range not seen in nearly 2 decades.
On all 4 previous occasions over the last 3 years when the 30-year yield crossed or approached 5%, the S&P 500 saw a pullback each time.
The bond market is now pricing in a world where oil stays high, inflation stays sticky, and rate cuts stay off the table.
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