#大户持仓变化 The timeframe for the Federal Reserve Chair's departure is approximately another six months. The current issue has evolved from "Will there be a change?" to "Who will replace them and when will the pricing be determined."

Treasury Secretary Bessant has already stated that he is unwilling to take on this hot potato, effectively stepping back. The market now generally favors Haskett for this position. Why is that?

First, his stance is particularly clear—publicly supporting cryptocurrencies. In the current political ecosystem, this attitude carries significant weight. Second, he has repeatedly stated that "current economic data is sufficient to support continued rate cuts," leaving no room for ambiguity, with a firm stance. Furthermore, he and Trump are highly aligned on economic policy, truly like two peas in a pod.

The logical deduction is quite straightforward—once Haskett is confirmed to enter the succession sequence, the Fed's "dovish-neutral" pricing framework will be overturned, replaced by expectations of "preemptive easing." This is why the probability of continued rate cuts in the second half of next year is not mild but structurally certain.

However, it is important to clarify a point that is easily misunderstood:

**Rate cuts ≠ unlimited liquidity.**

That massive liquidity medicine will be largely used up by around May next year. Subsequent rate cuts are more about "policy confirmation signals" and "market sentiment endorsement," rather than a new wave of astronomical capital flows.

Breaking it down:
- First half of the year? Liquidity expectations drive the entire pricing logic.
- Second half of the year? Political cycle + policy direction determine valuation trends.

The market always speculates on expectations, but the most aggressive push happens after actual implementation. The performance differences of assets like $SOL across different cycles can well illustrate this point.