3.18 Sore Market Analysis

From the 15-minute chart perspective, after rallying to 74850, it quickly fell back, currently pressured near 74204.9 (Bollinger Band middle band). The Bollinger Band upper band at 74528.1 forms short-term strong resistance, the lower band at 73880.7 provides support, with price continuing to trade below the middle band. Moving averages turned downward, short-term bearish momentum dominates, with weaker rebound strength.

Fed Decision Expectations Creating Pressure: Although tonight's FOMC meeting will likely keep rates unchanged, the dot plot and Powell's remarks are core risk factors. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have cooled significantly, and the judgment that "higher rates will persist longer" will tighten liquidity, directly suppressing valuations of risk assets.

Long Profit-Taking Realization: After yesterday's rally to 75800, the uptrend collapsed, with obvious signs of institutional short-term profit-taking, combined with the Fear & Greed Index in the extreme fear zone, lacking momentum for long-side chasing, with sustained selling pressure at highs.

Geopolitical and Compliance Double Disturbance: Middle East situation escalation pushes up stagflation risks, reinforcing Fed hawkish stance; meanwhile, global crypto regulation tightens (South Korea penalizes exchanges, Hong Kong stablecoin license quotas limited), making it difficult for market risk appetite to recover.

Trading Suggestions

At rebounds to 74500 – 75000 zone, short first targeting 73200, after breakout target 72700#伊朗确认拉里贾尼遇害 $BTC $ETH