Berita Mengejutkan! Dua Partai di Capitol Hill Jarang Bersatu, Ingin Membunuh Total "Taruhan Olahraga Legal", Kalshi Ditera oleh Pengadilan, Apakah Pasar Prediksi Akan Sepi?

Brothers, today’s news has sent a chill down my spine. Do you know what I fear most? It’s not the iron fist of regulation, but the sudden unity of the old men in Congress, who usually argue fiercely, standing hand in hand.

Just a couple of days ago, California Democratic Senator Adam Schiff surprisingly teamed up with Utah Republican Senator John Curtis to draft a bill. I can’t even bother to remember the name of this bill; its core is one sentence: from now on, all platforms under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), whether it’s sports betting contracts, casino slot machines, or poker contracts, are to be shut down—no more allowed!

This is directly targeting the U.S. operations of Kalshi and Polymarket, hitting them hard.

And this isn’t just a hollow threat; the knife is already at their necks. A federal appellate court in Nevada quickly issued a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, at least for 14 days, preventing them from offering sports contracts in Nevada. Lawyers have said that this cannot be appealed, meaning Kalshi is effectively forced out during these 14 days. Even more severe, Arizona has directly filed criminal charges against Kalshi’s parent company, accusing them of unlicensed gambling operations, with 20 charges—aiming to crush them completely.

In the past three months, four federal bills have been proposed, all targeting prediction markets; the Massachusetts court ruled that Kalshi’s sports contracts violate state law; Tennessee and Michigan are also not idle. This is no longer a solo fight; it’s a coordinated crackdown involving federal and state governments, courts, and legislative bodies.

Why are sports contracts so hated?

Simply put, they touch others’ interests and look too much like gambling. Schiff said that the CFTC is opening the green light, engaging in regulatory arbitrage, infringing on consumer protections in various states, and even threatening the gambling rights of Native American tribes—an important part of legal gambling in many states. No wonder they’re furious. Curtis, on the other hand, appeals to emotion, saying that many young people in Utah have become addicted to this, and it should be managed by the states, not the federal government.

The most ironic part is yet to come.

Do you know Major League Baseball (MLB)? They are currently embroiled in the biggest betting scandal in decades, with their reputation severely damaged. Yet, they have signed an authorization agreement with Polymarket, making them an official prediction market platform, even using their data and logo. The league’s idea is probably that it’s better to supervise than to ban outright—keeping an eye on things rather than running around in the gray area.

This move is completely opposite to what the legislators want—an all-out ban.

But are the legislators’ concerns unfounded? I don’t think so. There’s already a precedent on Polymarket: a few hours before the U.S. military attacked Iran, large anonymous bets were placed with precision, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars. For ordinary retail investors, this information has long been priced in, so they play for fun; but for insiders with confidential information, platforms with good liquidity are like ATMs. Sports betting? The manipulation potential is enormous.

Now, it all depends on a few key points: whether the 14-day hearing in Nevada will turn into a permanent ban; how the criminal case in Arizona will be judged; and how far the bipartisan bill can go in the Republican-controlled Senate—rumor has it that even Trump himself has profited from prediction markets, so some Republican senators are somewhat ambivalent.

In short, the waters of prediction markets are becoming more and more muddy. Especially those pure betting contracts, like betting on the size of the outcome, are fundamentally unjustified under the guise of “hedging risk,” and they are most likely to be the first to be sacrificed.

This wave of regulatory storms may seem distant from our crypto trading, but it’s terrifying upon closer inspection. Today, they ban “betting on games,” tomorrow they might find reasons to crack down on other “event contracts.” The illusion of decentralization is fragile—like a sheet of paper—facing the ironclad walls of politics and vested interests.

Are you ready to face even stricter regulations in your positions?