8 April Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the deadline. Iran accepted the proposal, and Israel agreed to suspend bombings during the negotiations. WTI oil plummeted by 17%. The tense situation in the Middle East, which had lasted over a month, suddenly changed at the last moment.

Today's article is dedicated to the report related to this conflict. The global investment strategy team of JPMorgan private bank released the latest issue of “The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) View, April 2026” in early April — at the time of writing, the ceasefire had not yet occurred, and the market continued to price in the worst-case scenarios.

The news of the ceasefire significantly eased the market; the fall in oil prices indicates that traders are leaning towards the most optimistic baseline scenario from the report. However, the two-week window of ceasefire is very narrow, and the possibility of making significant progress in negotiations is highly uncertain. The three oil price scenarios outlined in the report have not become outdated due to the ceasefire — on the contrary, they have become even more relevant: they will help anticipate which actions to take in case of success or failure of the negotiations.