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Recently, various indicators for market top escaping have been circulating, most of which have exceeded the warning line. A well-known saying is that when Bitcoin's market share breaks 65%, it is a danger signal. However, this oversimplified judgment may mislead investors, and we need to analyze different situations more deeply.
First, many indicators are originally designed for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's market share rises to a high level while other cryptocurrencies remain relatively stagnant, it may indicate that funds are about to flow into Ethereum and other altcoins. For investors holding Bitcoin, taking moderate profits at this time is something to consider.
Secondly, we need to consider the market cycle. In the later stages of a bull market, altcoins often have already experienced a round of increases, at which point Bitcoin's market share is usually low. As the market approaches its end, Bitcoin's market share may rise back to high levels, which could be due to a significant drop in altcoins or a final wave of Bitcoin clearing shorts. For Bitcoin holders, this could also be an opportunity to sell. However, it is important to note that if Bitcoin's market share reaches 65% in the early stages, rashly liquidating positions may result in missing out on the rise of altcoins. In the later stages, when Bitcoin's market share returns to 65%, many altcoins may have already significantly declined, and acting based on this indicator at that time may be too late.
Therefore, simply taking "Bitcoin market share of 65%" as a signal to escape the top is not comprehensive enough. As for some more aggressive price prediction indicators, they are not very meaningful in the current market environment, so I will not elaborate further.
It is important to emphasize that all market indicators have a certain degree of lag, and combined with the unpredictability of sudden events, these indicators can only be used as references. When making trading decisions, we should analyze various data from multiple perspectives, as this is at least much more reliable than blindly betting. In the ever-changing cryptocurrency market, it is crucial to maintain a clear mind and a comprehensive analytical perspective.