Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Fed Policy Trends and Labor Market Data Become Market Focus

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[Macro Outlook for Next Week: Fed Policy Trends and Labor Market Data as Market Focus] The cryptocurrency market experienced significant dumping this week, but this occurred after a strong performance the previous week. Given the decrease in volatility and the upcoming release of key data next week, this was not too surprising, and some relatively weak peaks have formed. Bitcoin faces a double top risk and has not provided much in the way of measures to counter its effects, while Ethereum further pulled back after reaching a new high last Saturday. The outlook for Ethereum is better than its "big brother" Bitcoin, but its performance will still depend on Bitcoin's performance. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week: On Wednesday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy; Wednesday 22:00, US July JOLTs Job Openings, US July Factory Orders MoM; On Thursday at 01:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat. Thursday 02:00, the Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday 20:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 30, U.S. Trade Balance for July; On Thursday at 23:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the New York Economic Club; On Friday at 07:00, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; Friday 20:30 US August unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll for August, average hourly wage year-on-year, month-on-month. The continued weakness in the labor market will not only solidify market expectations for a rate cut in September but also reignite hopes for a third rate cut of 25 basis points this year. In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Powell emphasized that inflation risks are tilted to the upside in the short term, while employment risks are tilted to the downside.

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