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The upcoming non-farm payroll data is pulling the strings of the global financial markets. This data reflects the number of new jobs in the United States and is a direct indicator of economic vitality, while also serving as an important reference for the Fed in formulating monetary policy.
The market generally expects the new jobs added this time to be between 180,000 and 200,000, a slight decrease compared to the previous months. If the actual data is lower than expected, it may indicate that the economy is beginning to cool, which could lead to a weaker dollar, thereby pushing up stocks and risk assets like cryptocurrencies slightly. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, it suggests that the economy remains strong, and the Fed may maintain a tightening stance, potentially resulting in a stronger dollar in the short term, putting pressure on risk assets.
In addition to the number of employed, the unemployment rate and the growth of average wages are also key indicators that need attention. If the unemployment rate decreases while wage growth slows down, it indicates that the job market is stable and inflationary pressures are easing, which is a positive signal for risk assets. Conversely, if wage growth exceeds expectations, it suggests that inflationary pressures still exist, which could negatively impact high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Overall, after the release of the non-farm data, the market may experience significant volatility in the short term, which presents both challenges and opportunities. If the data indicates that the economy is facing downward pressure, it may be a good opportunity for investors to buy at low prices. However, regardless of the outcome, investors should remain vigilant, closely monitor market trends, and make informed investment decisions based on their own risk tolerance.