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This Week's Gold Market Summary

I. Overall Market Review for This Week

1. Early Week Resistance at High Levels: On Monday (April 27), London spot gold opened around $4,830 per ounce. Due to profit-taking from previous gains, gold prices quickly dropped to a low of $4,660, a decline of over 3% in a single day.

2. Mid-Period Consolidation and Rebound: From Tuesday to Wednesday (April 28-29), gold prices stabilized and rebounded, reaching a high of $4,750, mainly driven by dip-buying, but the rebound was limited.

3. Slight Decline Over the Weekend: From Thursday to Friday (April 30 to May 2), gold prices traded narrowly around $4,700, pressured by a strengthening dollar and rising oil prices. On Friday, the close was at $4,620 per ounce, with a total weekly decline of about 2.5%.

II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

1. USD Index Fluctuations:
The dollar was strong early in the week and weakened later. It broke above 106 midweek, increasing the cost of holding gold and triggering long liquidation; on Friday, the dollar slightly retreated, providing brief support for gold prices.

2. Geopolitical Events:
The Middle East situation (deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and risks in the Strait of Hormuz) repeatedly disturbed the market. Amid high inflation expectations caused by conflicts, gold faced downward pressure and struggled to rise.

3. Macroeconomic Data and Policies:
The Federal Reserve maintained expectations of high interest rates, combined with delays in easing policies by major global central banks like the European Central Bank, suppressing the appeal of non-yielding assets; rising US inflation data also heightened concerns about stagflation risks.

4. Oil Price Linkage:
Elevated crude oil prices boosted inflation expectations, indirectly supporting gold prices. However, after oil prices retreated on Friday, gold also came under pressure and declined.

III. Technical Analysis
Key Levels:
Support: $4,600 (tested multiple times this week without breaking, forming a short-term defense line).
Resistance: $4,800 (the early-week high, with clear resistance).

Trend Signals:
Daily chart shows moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) in a bearish alignment, with the MACD histogram shrinking, indicating short-term weakness; but the weekly chart remains in a medium- to long-term upward channel, not breaking the medium-term bullish trend.

Volume Changes:
Trading volume contracted by about 15% during the week, reflecting cautious market participation and a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

IV. Outlook for the Coming Week
In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the range of $4,600 to $4,800. If the dollar remains strong or US-Iran tensions escalate, prices could test support at $4,550; conversely, if US non-farm payrolls are weak or US-Iran negotiations make progress, a rebound is possible. It is recommended that traders adopt a high sell and low buy strategy within the range, controlling risk positions.