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#WCTCTradingKingPK
Markets are on hold, waiting. The Fed doesn't seem to be planning to please the "hawks," and CME data speaks for itself.
As of May 2nd, the probability that the U.S. regulator will keep the key rate unchanged at the June meeting is 92.8%. The chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 7.2%. July statistics are almost the same: 88.8% for a pause and only 10.9% for a soft cut.
In my personal opinion, as long as the geopolitical situation remains heated, the conflict with Iran continues, and shipping issues in the Strait of Hormuz only worsen, I do not expect any rate cuts this year. Inflation risks due to supply disruptions of energy resources will not go away. The Fed will be forced to maintain a tight monetary policy longer than many hope. Optimists expecting easing in the summer should adjust their expectations. The current 92-95% indicates that the rate will stay high until external shocks subside.