Polymarket "The probability that WTI crude oil will fall to $95 by May 2026" rises to 81%, up 8% in 24 hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket “WTI crude oil falling to $95 by May 2026” once rose to 88% this morning, now reporting 81%, an 8% increase over 24 hours.

The event contract rules are: If at any 1-minute K-line during May 2026, the “highest price” of the active WTI crude oil futures month equals or exceeds the listed price, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No”; prices will be based on the prices published by Pyth, without rounding. Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: If the official settlement price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract for the current active month (near month) on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price on the last trading day of March 2026, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, the market will be judged as “No.”

Trump has promised to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz and announced the launch of the “Project Freedom,” which will start this week to help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz and actively negotiate with Iran. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command forces also announced support for “Project Freedom,” aiming to restore commercial shipping navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and provide assistance to merchant ships seeking free passage through this important international trade corridor.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.