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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (08.08 - 08.15)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $2.8 trillion, a 3.2% increase compared to the previous period. Exchange trading volume increased by 1.8% to $1.5 trillion. Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $120,000, with a slight increase in trading volume. The overall market shows a slight upward trend, and investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic.
According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, the market sentiment today is greed, with the Fear and Greed Index at 60, indicating a generally optimistic market sentiment. Compared to yesterday, the market sentiment has slightly retreated but is still in the greed range.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflationary pressures continue. The final value of the Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year was 2.00%, in line with expectations. The US July CPI rose by 3.20% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.10%. Against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by another 25 basis points in September is as high as 95.40%, and it is expected to keep the interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50%.
The Producer Price Index ( PPI ) is a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. The Eurozone's PPI for July decreased by 1.30% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The US PPI for July increased by 0.80% year-on-year, lower than the expected 1.10%. This indicates that upstream inflationary pressures are easing, but there is still a risk of transmission to downstream.
The Purchasing Managers' Index ( PMI ) reflects the expansion or contraction of economic activity. The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.80, and the services PMI preliminary value is 51.20, both below expectations. The United States' August manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.50, and the services PMI preliminary value is 55.20, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing. Overall, the global economic growth momentum is insufficient.
The uncertainty of the macroeconomy has intensified the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Investors' demand for risk assets has declined, putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices. However, in the long term, innovations in blockchain technology will continue to drive the development of the cryptocurrency market.
1.3 Financial Calendar
This week, attention is focused on the inflation data, real estate market indicators, and employment situation in the United States and Canada. The U.S. will release the July CPI data, new housing starts, and existing home sales data, which will impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Canada will also release the July CPI and June retail sales data. In addition, the Eurozone will publish the final year-on-year CPI data for July. Overall, the economic data released this week will provide important clues for the monetary policy paths of central banks around the world.
2. Fund Outlook and Price Volatility Analysis
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the standard deviation of BTC's daily closing prices over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC this week is 3.21%.
Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the BTC price fluctuated between $118,292.60 and $124,497.50. The price increase was mainly due to U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen confirming that the government holds a Bitcoin reserve of $15 billion to $20 billion and has paused sales. This news boosted market confidence, driving the price of Bitcoin to rise significantly in the short term.
However, the producer price index ( PPI ) data released on Thursday was much higher than expected, raising concerns in the market about inflationary pressures, which led to a decline in Bitcoin prices on Thursday afternoon.
Volume Changes and Impact This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC is approximately 35 million coins, which is an increase compared to last week. The increase in trading volume typically reflects a rise in market activity and heightened enthusiasm among traders.
The trading volume reached a record 250 million coins on August 14, primarily due to Besant's Bitcoin reserve announcement and the severe fluctuations following the release of PPI data. High trading volumes are often accompanied by significant price volatility.
2.2. Funding Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, we can see the inflows and outflows of some major cryptocurrencies. For example, the net capital inflow of VIRTUAL currency on August 15 was -$217.84 million, while PROVE currency had a net outflow of $101.01 million. These data reflect investors' optimism towards different cryptocurrencies.
Retail Investor Behavior Analysis: From the data, retail investors seem to prefer popular coins like VIRTUAL, with a net inflow of funds. However, there are also instances of fund outflows, which may be due to profit-taking or a decrease in risk appetite.
Institutional Investor Behavior Analysis: Compared to retail investors, institutional investors' fund flows tend to be more cautious. They may pay more attention to public chain projects like PROVE and make investment adjustments based on project development. Overall, the fund flows of institutional investors have a significant impact on cryptocurrency price trends.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates market trends. By analyzing changes in large order transaction volumes, we can gain insights into the movements of institutional funds, thereby determining future bullish or bearish trends.
BTC Large Order Analysis The recent large order transaction volume of BTC indicates that institutional funds are gradually withdrawing. This may mean that the upward momentum of BTC is weakening, and it may face some selling pressure in the future.
ETH Large Order Analysis Unlike BTC, the large transaction volume of ETH has shown a sustained growth trend. This indicates that institutional funds are increasing their investment in ETH, providing strong support for its subsequent rise.
Analysis of Other Cryptocurrencies In addition to BTC and ETH, some popular altcoins have also attracted a significant inflow of institutional funds. For example, the large transaction volumes of coins such as SOL and AVAX have seen notable increases.
Overall, the current market sentiment remains positive, but the upward momentum of BTC may slow down. In contrast, ETH and some popular altcoins have greater upward potential. Investors can allocate according to their own risk preferences.
3. Hot Topics
According to the data provided, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is the arrival of "Altcoin Season." Here are the relevant topic reports:
The season of altcoins is coming! Led by Bitcoin and Ethereum, who will become the next blockbuster?
Funds are starting to flow from Bitcoin to Ethereum, the prelude to the altcoin season has already begun.
The data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin has recently shown a significant downward trend, having fallen from a previous high to around 57.7%. At the same time, the proportion of Ethereum has continued to rise, with its dominance recovering to 14.0%. Trader @b66ny stated that this is a typical signal of capital rotation, as market funds begin to withdraw from relatively stable assets in pursuit of higher risk and higher potential returns.
@im_BrokeDoomer analyzed the comparison chart of altcoins and Bitcoin market capitalization from 2017 to the present, pointing out that we are currently at a key support position at the lower edge of the channel. This position has historically been a sensitive area for capital entry, often accompanied by a warming of market sentiment and accelerated rotation.
(# Ethereum's breakthrough to a historic high will trigger a surge in the overall market, and small to mid-cap altcoins may subsequently soar.
Analyst @ZssBecker believes that during the last bull market in 2020, the narratives of most altcoins did not explode at the beginning, but instead fully launched after the price of Ethereum broke its historical high and increased threefold. At that time, funds flooded into the new narratives, driving related tokens to surge by 10 times, 20 times, or even 50 times.
He expects that this scene will be reenacted in the current market cycle. We are still in the first phase of the altcoin season—dominated by Bitcoin and Ethereum. The market capital will only frantically search for the next narrative after Ethereum breaks above $5000 and mainstream altcoins complete a 2-3 times increase, with the most likely areas being AI, RWA, and gaming.
)# A partial altcoin season may emerge, with funds concentrating in a few popular sectors.
Analyst @lanhubiji holds a different view. He believes that due to the existence of millions of cryptocurrencies on the market, competition is extremely fragmented, and funds cannot cover all targets. Therefore, this round of market conditions is more likely to see a "local altcoin season," where funds will concentrate on a few sectors or individual tokens that have strong narratives, strong communities, and strong liquidity to create localized euphoria.
@joao_wedson also stated that the real altcoin season has not yet begun. The flow of smart money usually moves from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then into major market coins, and finally spreads to small and mid-cap tokens. The current market is just entering the first half, and the real "altcoin frenzy" is still on the way, possibly continuing all the way to November.
(# Market View
"The main issue at the moment is that the entire market trend is based on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month," said Chief Analyst Pav Hundal.
"Regardless of size, banks now need a stablecoin strategy." said James Wester, cryptocurrency director at Javelin Strategy & Research.
"When banks shift from tokenized deposits to stablecoins, distribution may become a challenge," said Duane Block, Managing Director of Digital Asset Management at Accenture.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-d8d3187cd6-153d09-1c6801.webp###
4. Major Events
Recent Major Events
Bitcoin has surged past $124,000, reaching a new all-time high. Its market capitalization has reached $2.457 trillion, surpassing Alphabet and climbing to the fifth position in the global mainstream asset rankings. This surge is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in September and increased institutional demand.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen stated that the U.S. government will explore budget-neutral ways to purchase more Bitcoin to expand its strategic Bitcoin reserves. Previously, he had indicated reliance solely on confiscated Bitcoin assets.
Notable analyst @CryptoKaleo predicts that Dogecoin may repeat the cycle of 2021, reaching around $7. He believes that crypto finance companies will make large purchases of Dogecoin, and whale activity has also increased.
The lawsuit between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has concluded, confirming a fine of $125 million. This brings rare regulatory clarity to the crypto space and reignites market interest.
Kazakhstan's Fonte Capital has launched Central Asia's first spot Bitcoin ETF, BETF, on the Astana International Exchange.
Trump signed an executive order to relax regulations in the aerospace industry and expedite rocket launch permits, which is a big victory for Musk.
Federal Reserve Chair candidates Marc Sumerlin and David Zervos expressed support for significant interest rate cuts.
Shiba Inu coin fell 7.3% today, affected by the producer price index for July ### PPI ### inflation data that was well above expectations.
In the past three months, Solana has completed over 5 billion transactions on decentralized exchanges, surpassing Ethereum.
Tether saw a massive outflow of nearly $4 billion, while USD0 and USDX experienced significant growth.
The Turkish exchange Btc Turk has suspended deposit and withdrawal services due to unusual activity detected in the hot wallet.
Analysts are concerned that some listed crypto treasury companies may face debt risks similar to those of Evergrande.
KOL Ansem expects 2025 and 2026 to be the most fruitful periods for crypto assets.
Analysts believe that top alternative coins such as Solana, Tezos, LayerZero, and Uniswap have strong growth potential.
The supply of the RLUSD stablecoin on Ethereum increased by $4.4 million, but most of it is controlled by Ripple deployers.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the global cryptocurrency industry based on news from August 8 to 15, 2025, along with an analysis and summary of their impact on the industry and the market.
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent stated that the U.S. will purchase Bitcoin
According to news from August 14, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset stated in a dramatic reversal that the federal government will be committed to exploring the purchase of more Bitcoin to bolster its strategic Bitcoin reserves. This move is seen as support for President Trump's March executive order aimed at establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Impact Analysis on the Industry and Market:
2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) allows the physical creation and redemption of cryptocurrency ETPs
According to news reports from July 31, 2025, the U.S. SEC has approved the physical creation and redemption of the cryptocurrency exchange-traded product (ETP). This initiative aims to enhance liquidity and efficiency in the cryptocurrency market.
Impact Analysis on Industry and Market:
3. Thailand and Cambodia negotiate over recent border conflicts
According to a report on August 4, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia have begun negotiations regarding the recent most severe border conflict. This incident has triggered geopolitical tensions that could impact the cryptocurrency market.
Analysis of the Impact on the Industry and Market:
Summary:
Policies and Regulations:
Geopolitical Dynamics:
6. Investment Analysis
) 6.1. Investment Recommendations
Market trends show that the cryptocurrency market is recovering. Bitcoin has broken through the historical high of $124,000, leading the entire market upward. In addition, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September are rising, bringing positive news for risk assets. Another hotspot is the significant decline in cryptocurrencies related to artificial intelligence and machine learning, which may present investment opportunities.
Please note that these suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investment carries risks, and caution is advised when entering the market.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Trending Tokens This Week
Dogecoin breaks through long-term resistance, with a dominance of 2.14%. The RSI and MACD cross confirm strong participation. ICE forms an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with support at $0.006196 and resistance at $0.006386. QF Network breaks through a long-term downtrend line, with key support at $1.80 and resistance at $2.20.
Trading Bot Strategy Summary
Grid trading strategy profits by setting multiple buy and sell grids, suitable for moderately volatile markets. The moving average strategy trades based on moving average signals and carries higher risk. The market maker strategy earns from the bid-ask spread through limit orders, suitable for less volatile markets. The option selling strategy profits by selling call and put options, involving high risk and high returns. The trend-following strategy captures trending markets, with a balanced risk-reward ratio.
Summary
This week's popular tokens are showing an upward trend, with trading robot strategies performing well. The options selling strategy and trend-following strategy have higher returns, but also come with greater risks. Investors can choose suitable strategies based on their own risk preferences.
( 6.3. Financial Management Products
Yu Bi Bao is a type of balance interest-earning product, where users can deposit idle funds with the flexibility to withdraw at any time. Interest is calculated hourly and compounded. Main features include:
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 35,019,400 USDT, with an estimated annualized yield of 16.65% + 8.87%.
![])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-ef525d6c5b-153d09-1c6801.webp###
Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive wealth management service center, including various wealth management plans such as current and fixed-term savings. Main features include:
Structured finance is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and options, among other financial derivatives. The main features include:
![]###https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b030f7d302-5a97c15532-153d09-1c6801.webp(
) 6.4. Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy Analysis
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This analysis uses the following Bollinger Bands trading strategy:
Backtesting the historical data of ETH based on this trading strategy, the backtest results are as follows:
Data Analysis:
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy is feasible to a certain extent, but it also has some flaws and risks. Investors need to manage risks reasonably during actual operations and adjust their strategies in a timely manner based on market conditions.