Author: that1618guy, Market Researcher at Delphi Digital; Translated by: Yuliya
The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to make its first rate cut of the current cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise before the implementation of easing policies but falls back after the rate cut takes effect. However, this pattern does not always hold true. This article will review the situations in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to predict the trends that may occur in September 2025.
Year 2019: Rise as expected, drop after realization
In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 in June. The Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30.
Each rate cut decision marks a nearing exhaustion of Bitcoin's upward momentum. BTC surged significantly before the monetary policy meeting, but was sold off afterward as the reality of sluggish economic growth re-emerged. This indicates that the benefits of the rate cut have already been priced in by the market, while the reality of slowing economic growth has dominated subsequent trends.
2020: The Exception Under Emergency Rate Cuts
The situation in March 2020 was not a typical cycle. At that time, in response to the panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve drastically cut interest rates to zero.
In this liquidity crisis, BTC plummeted alongside stocks, but then rebounded strongly with massive fiscal and monetary policy support. Therefore, this is an exception driven by the crisis and cannot be used as a template to predict the trends of 2025.
2024: Narrative Overwhelms Liquidity
The trend in 2024 has changed. BTC did not decline after the interest rate cut; instead, it continued its upward momentum.
The reason is:
Trump's campaign has turned cryptocurrency into an election issue.
Spot ETFs are attracting record inflows.
MicroStrategy's purchasing demand at the balance sheet level remains strong.
In this context, the importance of liquidity has decreased. Structural buying and favorable political factors have overshadowed the traditional economic cycle effects.
September 2025: Conditional market launch
The current market backdrop is different from the runaway rallies seen in previous cycles. Since late August, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, with inflows into ETFs significantly slowing down, and the corporate balance sheet buying that was once a continuous positive factor has also started to weaken.
This makes the interest rate cut in September a conditional market trigger point, rather than a direct catalyst.
If Bitcoin rises significantly before the interest rate meeting, the risk of history repeating itself will increase—meaning traders might "sell the news" after the implementation of easing policies, leading to a "rise followed by a fall" scenario.
However, if the price remains stable or slightly declines before this resolution, then most of the excess positions may have been cleared, making rate cuts more effective in stabilizing the market rather than becoming a terminal point for upward momentum.
Core Viewpoints
The current Bitcoin trend may be influenced by the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting and related liquidity changes. Overall, Bitcoin may experience a rise before the FOMC meeting, but the increase may struggle to break through new highs.
If the price rises significantly before the meeting, then a "sell the news" type of pullback is likely to occur;
However, if the price consolidates or declines from early September to the meeting period, there may be an unexpected rise due to interest rate adjustments.
However, even if a rebound occurs, the market should remain cautious. The next round of increases may form a lower high (around the range of 118,000 to 120,000 USD).
If a lower high point occurs, this may create conditions for the second half of Q4, when liquidity is expected to stabilize, demand may rebound, and drive Bitcoin to new highs.
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Delphi Digital: How Do Interest Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin's Short-Term Trends?
Author: that1618guy, Market Researcher at Delphi Digital; Translated by: Yuliya
The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to make its first rate cut of the current cycle in September. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise before the implementation of easing policies but falls back after the rate cut takes effect. However, this pattern does not always hold true. This article will review the situations in 2019, 2020, and 2024 to predict the trends that may occur in September 2025.
Year 2019: Rise as expected, drop after realization
In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from $3,000 at the end of 2018 to $13,000 in June. The Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30.
Each rate cut decision marks a nearing exhaustion of Bitcoin's upward momentum. BTC surged significantly before the monetary policy meeting, but was sold off afterward as the reality of sluggish economic growth re-emerged. This indicates that the benefits of the rate cut have already been priced in by the market, while the reality of slowing economic growth has dominated subsequent trends.
2020: The Exception Under Emergency Rate Cuts
The situation in March 2020 was not a typical cycle. At that time, in response to the panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve drastically cut interest rates to zero.
In this liquidity crisis, BTC plummeted alongside stocks, but then rebounded strongly with massive fiscal and monetary policy support. Therefore, this is an exception driven by the crisis and cannot be used as a template to predict the trends of 2025.
2024: Narrative Overwhelms Liquidity
The trend in 2024 has changed. BTC did not decline after the interest rate cut; instead, it continued its upward momentum.
The reason is:
In this context, the importance of liquidity has decreased. Structural buying and favorable political factors have overshadowed the traditional economic cycle effects.
September 2025: Conditional market launch
The current market backdrop is different from the runaway rallies seen in previous cycles. Since late August, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, with inflows into ETFs significantly slowing down, and the corporate balance sheet buying that was once a continuous positive factor has also started to weaken.
This makes the interest rate cut in September a conditional market trigger point, rather than a direct catalyst.
If Bitcoin rises significantly before the interest rate meeting, the risk of history repeating itself will increase—meaning traders might "sell the news" after the implementation of easing policies, leading to a "rise followed by a fall" scenario.
However, if the price remains stable or slightly declines before this resolution, then most of the excess positions may have been cleared, making rate cuts more effective in stabilizing the market rather than becoming a terminal point for upward momentum.
Core Viewpoints
The current Bitcoin trend may be influenced by the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting and related liquidity changes. Overall, Bitcoin may experience a rise before the FOMC meeting, but the increase may struggle to break through new highs.
However, even if a rebound occurs, the market should remain cautious. The next round of increases may form a lower high (around the range of 118,000 to 120,000 USD).
If a lower high point occurs, this may create conditions for the second half of Q4, when liquidity is expected to stabilize, demand may rebound, and drive Bitcoin to new highs.