Societe Generale: Fed's September rate cut will not cause a significant depreciation of the US dollar

Jinshi data, July 23, FAX Bank analysis said that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September, but any depreciation of the US dollar will be limited. The bank's forex strategist said that the Rebound of the US dollar in 2021-2022 provides ample room for downward revisions, but unless the slowdown in the US economy far exceeds expectations, the US Intrerest Rate is "highly unlikely" to approach levels before the outbreak of the new crown in 2020. They said the biggest Fluctuation should be the US dollar against the yen, possibly falling from the current 156.197 to 140 in early 2025. The yen is the currency most severely affected by the rise in US Intrerest Rate and yield. They said that at some point in 2024 or 2025, the euro against the US dollar may rise from the current 1.0850 to 1.15.