Morgan Stanley lowers BOSS Zhipin's US stock target price by 6% and maintains a buy rating

On November 28th, Jinshi Data News, Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that it lowered the cash bill forecast for Boss Zhipin (BZ.N) in 2024-2026 by 4%/7%/9%, and lowered the cash bill forecast for other years by 19-31%. Based on DCF valuation, the target price of the group’s US stocks was lowered by 6% from $16 to $15. Maintain a buy rating. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Morgan Stanley predicts that Boss Zhipin’s adjusted operating profit will reach 648 million RMB, and the adjusted net profit will be 749 million RMB. For 2024, Morgan Stanley predicts that the group’s cash bill may rise by 14% year-on-year, with total revenue increasing by 23% to 7.3 billion RMB. Despite weak performance, the group still maintains its full-year adjusted operating profit target of 2.3 billion RMB for 2024. Therefore, Morgan Stanley predicts that the adjusted net profit for the group in 2024 will be 2.7 billion RMB; it is expected that total revenue in 2025 will achieve low double-digit growth, and due to limited visibility and high correlation with the macroeconomic environment, no longer provide cash bill guidance. Morgan Stanley predicts that the group’s cash revenue in 2025 will increase by 11% annually, and total revenue will increase by 13% annually. Therefore, the estimated adjusted net profit is 3.2 billion RMB.