On May 2, news came that the digital asset derivation company Two Prime announced that, despite achieving success with ETH, it will focus on BTC asset management and lending in the future. The statistical trading behavior, value proposition, and community culture of ETH have failed to the point that they are not worth participating in. With BTC becoming an alternative, the risk-reward of ETH is simply not reasonable.
Two Prime claims that as an algorithmic trading firm, it values data over narrative. Data shows that ETH has undergone fundamental changes. Its correlation with BTC has decreased, and tail risks have significantly increased. Now, its trading style resembles that of a meme coin rather than a predictable asset. Even during the tumultuous period of Q1 2025, Bitcoin maintained its fundamental trend, while ETH experienced multiple standard deviation fluctuations. This stems from a risk-off environment and widespread selling by long-term holders of ETH. This poses challenges for algorithmic trading and ETH-backed lending, as the asset’s performance is no longer predictable, even considering the high volatility expectations of the digital asset market.
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