Ethereum’s Oversold Crossover Returns in May: Traders Eye Pattern Behind Triple-Digit Rallies

Ethereum’s stochastic crossover on the 2-week chart has preceded three rallies, each delivering gains of nearly 100% or more.

ETH has entered a familiar oversold zone, repeating a pattern that historically triggered major multi-week price surges.

Price trades in a rising channel above $1,765 support, but failure to break $2,400 could confirm a broader bearish setup.

Ethereum's technical setup is attracting attention as its stochastic oscillator enters an oversold zone again in May 2025. Historical patterns show that past occurrences at this level have consistently preceded sharp upward moves in ETH price.

Oversold Stochastic Crossovers Show Repeatable Rally Pattern

Past stochastic crossovers have repeatedly aligned with substantial Ethereum rallies on multi-week charts. Analysts continue to monitor the signal for indications of another breakout.

Ethereum's price movement on the two-week chart reflects a consistent reaction to oversold stochastic indicators

Source: Trader Tardigrade

The first signal appeared in November 2022, when the indicator formed a bullish crossover below the 20 level. ETH rose from approximately $1,070 to over $2,140, producing a +100% return.

The second occurred in September 2023, resulting in a rally from around $1,500 to nearly $4,050, a +169% gain. A third crossover took place between April and August 2024, triggering a +99% move from about $1,820 to $3,620. Each instance followed a familiar structure—oversold crossover, confirmation, and a strong price surge.

According to Trader Tardigrade, the ETH price has now entered a fourth oversold stochastic condition as of mid-2025. He identified a fresh upward crossover marked on the chart with a magenta projection zone and a large blue arrow. The setup closely resembles earlier formations that led to sizable price advances.

Short-Term Structure Confirms Support but Faces Resistance

Nebraskangooner has presented a comparative analysis focused on Ethereum’s price behavior on the daily chart and recent trend formations. ETH has traded inside an ascending channel since early April, with the lower trendline near $1,520 and the upper line just above $1,880. Price has consistently respected these boundaries, showing higher lows and highs throughout the structure.

Source: Nebraskangooner

The asset recently reclaimed the 20-day exponential moving average, now positioned at $1,765.84. It broke above this level on April 25 and has mostly remained above it since. Price also retested the $1,765 horizontal zone, which now acts as support.

According to Nebraskangooner, the broader structure resembles a bear flag despite the near-term bullish channel. He noted that ETH remains under a long-term resistance trendline and has not broken the March high near $2,400. This suggests the bullish setup could face limitations without a stronger breakout.