Can Bitcoin break through the $108,000 mark this weekend?

Can the price of Bitcoin stabilize above the $108,000 mark before the end of this week? This is the hot topic currently attracting market attention. As the deadline approaches, traders are facing a critical moment of decision.

Just the day before, when the Bitcoin trading price hovered around $107,640, it seemed certain to break through this level. At that time, only a 0.33% increase ($360) was needed to achieve the target, and the bullish and bearish sentiments in the market were basically balanced, with the bears leading slightly by 50.8%.

However, the situation took a sharp turn today. With Bitcoin dropping to the key level of $106,000 (a price point to focus on in July), market expectations have changed dramatically. Predictors now believe that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $108,000 before July 4 is as high as 69%, indicating that this week may close on a bearish note.

Bitcoin Price: Signals Revealed by the Chart

When Bitcoin hovers below the psychological level of $108,000, the core issue is not whether the price can reach that level, but whether it can close firmly above it — there is an essential difference between the two.

By analyzing the 4-hour candlestick chart, it can be found that in the 30 trading periods since June 25, Bitcoin has only closed above $108,000 three times. More notably, since June 9, Bitcoin has not achieved a daily close above this level again—historically, Bitcoin's daily closing price has only exceeded this threshold 8 times.

However, for day traders, technical analysis at the 4-hour level can provide key insights for this short-term prediction:

From a purely technical perspective, Bitcoin is facing a typical dilemma of being "within reach yet out of reach." The 4-hour chart shows that the price has repeatedly attempted to break through the $107,500-$108,000 range, only to be met with selling pressure. These failed breakout attempts have left obvious upper shadows on the candlestick chart, indicating that buyers' attempts to push the price higher have been repeatedly thwarted by strong selling at resistance levels.

This seemingly close distance is very deceptive. Although a 2% increase may seem insignificant in the cryptocurrency market where daily volatility often reaches 3-5%, the fact that this key level has repeatedly been unable to break suggests deeper market mechanisms. For position traders, if this resistance level can be effectively breached, it would mean that the bulls have enough momentum to push the price to new highs in the short term.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 17, far below the threshold of 25 required to confirm trend strength. This weak reading indicates that Bitcoin is in a non-trending oscillation phase, which is particularly unfavorable when attempting to break through key resistance. A low ADX environment typically leads to prices oscillating back and forth between support and resistance levels, rather than achieving a decisive breakout.

Specifically regarding the current trend, since June 25, Bitcoin has been oscillating repeatedly in the range of $107,000 to $108,000: sometimes falling below this level, with fewer breakout occurrences, but it always returns to the horizontal channel, confirming the judgment of a lack of a clear trend in the short term, and validating the accuracy of the ADX indicator.

The squeeze momentum indicator shows that the market is brewing bearish momentum, indicating that the downward trend dominates in the shorter cycle. This bearish pressure directly contradicts the bullish momentum needed to break through $108,000. In short, traders currently seem more inclined to believe that the market will experience a bearish correction rather than continue the long-term upward trend.

However, there is one technical indicator that still holds a glimmer of hope: the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator guides trading decisions by calculating the average price over a specific period. Continuing to observe the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, maintaining a bullish "golden cross" structure. This arrangement suggests that despite the weakening short-term momentum, the overall trend remains upward.

However, the price has fallen below the 50-period EMA, indicating short-term bearish pressure.

Another valuable indicator is the visible range volume distribution. The current price is trading above the control point, which is usually a bullish signal. However, as the price is also near the resistance level and lacks momentum, the likelihood of a pullback (i.e., "mean reversion") is higher.

The volume distribution chart can highlight the price areas with the most active trading—these areas often form natural support or resistance, as traders usually set take-profit or stop-loss orders here. For example, after building a position at a certain price level, you might set the stop-loss at the same level to control risk.

Although the current price level is within the buying range for most traders (slightly bullish), the lack of clear direction is not sufficient to determine market sentiment.

Weekend Effect

A key factor that is often overlooked is that July 4th coincides with Friday in the US, while the deadline for predictions is 23:59 UTC (which is already early Saturday for most global markets).

Weekend trading is usually characterized by a decrease in institutional participation, shrinking overall trading volume, and widening bid-ask spreads. Basically, only the "die-hard" cryptocurrency enthusiasts remain active, as this market never sleeps.

This environment makes it more difficult for key resistance levels to be consistently broken due to a fundamental lack of sufficient buying pressure to absorb the selling pressure.

Conclusion: It's easy to reach the peak, but hard to maintain it.

Strictly based on chart analysis, the probability of Bitcoin reaching at least $108,000 before the deadline on July 4th remains high - after all, it only requires less than a 2% increase. But to close above that level? Currently, the hope seems slim. The reasons are as follows:

• Historical rejection rate: The chart shows that there have been at least 4-5 attempts to break through this area recently, all of which have ended in failure, forming a statistical precedent.
• Momentum Divergence: Although the price is approaching a high point, momentum indicators (RSI, ADX) show a weakening of momentum - a typical bearish divergence pattern.
• Time decay: As the deadline approaches, momentum diminishes, and each hour that passes without a breakthrough reduces the probability of success.
• Volume requirement: A breakthrough and sustained hold at a new price level requires continuous volume, while a weak ADX reading indicates insufficient energy.
• Weekend liquidity dried up: The deadline coincides with a critical moment for institutional fund withdrawals.

Of course, the above analysis is based on the premise that the market environment remains unchanged. But this is the cryptocurrency market, anything is possible. When Bitcoin is only 0.33% away from the target of $108,000, even a single large order, political statement, "whale" movements, or small catalysts like social media sentiment can completely change the outcome. Although the charts indicate that resistance levels may hold firm, the predictive power of traditional technical analysis is inevitably diminished in the face of such a small gap.

Key price level reminder:

• Immediate resistance level: $108,000 (forecast target)
• Key support level: $105,000 (psychological barrier)
• Next resistance after breakthrough: $110,000 (previous high area)

For participants in the prediction market, this technical pattern suggests a bias towards a failure rate binary outcome — similar to opening an excessively leveraged long position. However, with the deadline approaching, external catalysts are likely to play a decisive role. It is advised to closely monitor early signals of sustained breakthroughs such as an increase in trading volume and an ADX breakout above 20, while also being wary of sudden news that could temporarily invalidate technical analysis.