Crypto Market Weekly Review: BTC Breaks Historical High, Soaring 9.08%

This week, the opening price of BTC was $109,217.98, and the closing price was $119,130.81, up by 9.08%. The highest reached $119,500, the lowest was $105,119.70, with a volatility of 11.04%, and trading volume increased moderately.

Recently, the market has shown significant positive changes. After being quiet for more than a month, the activity of funds in the market has increased, resonating with the funds outside the market, driving BTC to start the fourth wave of this bull market. This week, the strong buying power of funds in the market resonated with the off-market funds of the BTC spot ETF channel, prompting BTC to reach new highs.

However, the chaotic situation of the "reciprocal tariff war" and the increased uncertainty of interest rate cut expectations due to employment market data exceeding expectations are worth close attention.

Policies, Macroeconomic Finance, and Economic Data

The main factors affecting the market this week are the tariff war and U.S. employment data.

Trump announced that a uniform tariff of 35% would be imposed on all imported goods from Canada starting August 1. He also demanded market openness, and if an agreement cannot be reached before August 1, a tax rate of 30% will be imposed on Mexico and the EU. Previously, the U.S. had notified Japan and South Korea that the tariff rate would be set at 25%. Trump also sent a uniform letter to 23 other countries, specifying tax rates of 20-50%, but countries could negotiate to reduce them before August 1.

Currently, the tariff rates announced by major trading countries exceed market expectations. At the same time, the $3.4 trillion tax reform and spending bill is undergoing in-depth review in the Senate, and the U.S. deficit rate could rise to 9% in the fiscal year 2026. The combination of fiscal expansion and tariff inflation has led the market to reassess stagflation risks. Affected by policy uncertainty and economic data, the dollar index rose by about 0.8% weekly.

According to data from the Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, reaching a seven-week low, better than the market expectation of 235,000. Strong data led traders to once again delay bets on the first rate cut in September. Weekend data showed that the probability of a rate cut in July dropped to 5.2%, while the probability for September fell to 60.4%.

The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized that a rate cut in July is possible but not officially supported, and there remains uncertainty regarding the secondary impact of tariffs on inflation. There are divisions within the Federal Reserve, with several officials supporting a rate cut. Various signs indicate that the conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding the rate cut has further deepened.

The key is whether tariffs lead to a significant rise in inflation, which will directly affect the interest rate cut decision in September. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin have priced in a rate cut in September; if there are clear signs of rising inflation, the market may be under pressure, but it will not change the overall trend.

crypto market

The uncertainty in the macro market has affected the U.S. stock market, which hovers near historical highs, with the three major indices slightly declining. However, benefiting from the dual resonance of significant inflows of funds both inside and outside the market, Bitcoin surged 9.08% this week, reaching a new historical high.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's biggest achievement this week is breaking through the $90,000-$110,000 fluctuation range that has formed since November of last year. This range has fluctuated for 8 months and is the third largest consolidation platform of this bull market cycle, with over 30% of Bitcoin experiencing on-chain movement within this range.

This price range marks a significant breakthrough in establishing Bitcoin and encryption assets as strategic reserve assets, which is of great significance. It also means that the large-scale institutional adoption triggered by public companies incorporating Bitcoin into their treasury. We believe this will be a very important new starting point.

Breaking through this range means that Bitcoin has officially entered the fourth wave of this bull market. Like the previous three waves, this upward trend may be completed quickly in a short period, and it is worth paying close attention to.

Bitcoin has broken through its long-term consolidation range, which has also activated the bullish sentiment for other crypto assets, including Ethereum, leading to a widespread market rally.

Capital In and Out

Despite the renewed challenges in the global macro environment, strong capital inflows both inside and outside the market have driven Bitcoin to significantly outperform the Nasdaq index this week, breaking through a long-term consolidation range.

This week, a total of $5.886 billion flowed into stablecoin and Bitcoin spot ETF channels, with stablecoin channels accounting for $2.177 billion and Bitcoin spot ETF channels for $2.780 billion. In addition, the Ethereum spot ETF channel saw an inflow of $929 million, setting a record for weekly inflows since the establishment of this ETF type.

Enterprise-level procurement is also accelerating. The consensus in the third quarter is becoming stronger, and the strong capital inflow is difficult to change the trend in the short term, allowing the market to regain its bullish charm.

selling pressure and sell-off

Since July, as Bitcoin approaches its historical high again, long-term holders have started to reduce their holdings slightly. This week, after Bitcoin broke its historical high, long-term holders officially began to reduce their holdings, but the amount reduced was only over 10,000 coins.

The selling scale of short-term and long-term holders has increased compared to last week, but the main selling pressure comes from short-term traders. Currently, short-term holders have an unrealized profit of about 18%, and selling pressure is gradually increasing, but it is still limited. Buying is strong, and the overall trend of the exchange is still showing a capital outflow.

Long-term holders reducing their holdings marks the arrival of a new round of liquidity. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September remains unchanged, and there is a very strong willingness for forward-looking trading funds to price upwards. This is also the reason why we maintain a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the BTC trend in the third quarter.

cycle indicator

According to relevant data, the BTC cyclical indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.