I looked at today's CPI data, 2.7, core CPI 3.1, which has broken 3, making it theoretically impossible to cut interest rates. Last September, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points for the elections, with inflation at 2.4 and core CPI at 3.3. From the data, it really does not look good for a rate cut. Various predictions from large financial groups show a 90% probability of a rate cut, which basically confirms a rate cut. Last year's events may replay due to pressure.

Whether to lower or not is beyond our decision; we need to analyze the situation after the decrease, as well as how it will proceed afterwards. If there is no decrease, it will definitely be bearish and will decline; this is certain. Because it does not meet expectations.
After looking at UBS's report logic, the logic behind the rise of US stocks, the earnings reports of the seven giants, operational conditions, and considering political factors, Luis mentioned in the live broadcast about NVIDIA payments and purchasing matters.
Feeling a bit uneasy, so I've been unable to sleep, reviewing materials and analyzing data. There is too much data and financial logic involved here. I'll整理一下 when I have time and publish a separate article.
To conclude, the second half of the year is destined to be a period of ups and downs, the US stock market will correct and then rebound, reaching higher peaks in 2026.
This point is similar to the transition from bull to bear, at the same rhythm as the bull, but the bear won't be quite like before.