$BTC

📊 New Day, New Data

Lower prices look likely today, but there’s one important detail to keep in mind.

Let’s dive in 👇

Price:
Yesterday we had a big dump, sweeping the weekly high. Statistically, that makes it very unlikely to see new highs this week. That shifts my focus to looking for shorts targeting the weekly low, but I want confirmation first.

The caveat is that this week’s low was formed on Thursday. Normally, Thursday pivot points are weak and rarely hold. But this one came during a news-driven move.

And since news doesn’t really change direction (it just speeds up what was already in play), there’s a chance that the Thursday low could act as the actual weekly low.

Time (weekly):
✅ 1% chance to take out the high
⚠️ 69% chance to take out the low, if the high holds
➡️ Bias: strong bear

Distance (weekly):
⚠️ 42% chance to take out the high
❌ 87% chance for more displacement
➡️ Bias: neutral

Plan:
With only 1% chance of new highs, I’ll mainly be looking for short setups during New York session.

Still, I’m aware this could be one of those low probability scenarios where the Thursday news low ends up holding. If that happens, we might have already seen the weekly low earlier than usual.