🚨 Chair Powell signals a fall in interest rates at Jackson Hole

📌Summary of the speech by the elder at Jackson Hole:
- The possibility of lowering interest rates in September: He acknowledged that "the risk balance is shifting", the current policy remains tight and "ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED SOON".

- Labor market: The expert believes that the labor market is in a "strange equilibrium state", where both labor supply and demand are slowing down, and the risk of weakening employment could arrive sooner than forecast.

- Inflation & tariffs: Taxes are driving consumer prices up, and the impact may persist, but the Fed still views it as a temporary factor.

- New policy framework: The Fed will draw lessons from 5 years of high inflation, providing long-term guidance to avoid "tightening too much" or "loosening too long."

The market reacts strongly: Dow Jones +900 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounce nearly 2%. CME FedWatch raises the probability of a rate cut in September back to around ~90%.

📌 Unprecedented political pressure on the Fed: Trump continuously attacks Powell, Governor Lisa Cook is likely to leave the headquarters. The Fed faces a crossroads: It must prove its independence from the White House while also reassuring a market thirsty for liquidity.

👉 Overall, the signal for a rate cut is clear and the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in September.