Emergency warning! The Fed's "rate cut trap" has been revealed, and ETH 4400 may be a century's peak, while retail investors are still frantically catching a falling knife!

Red alert! Employment data may become the trigger for the ETH crash, facing an ultimate test at the $4300 level.
On September 6th, Beijing time, the US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and the market rumors of an "epic downgrade" are causing the entire crypto circle to hold its breath. According to internal sources from the Fed, the August employment data may be significantly revised down to below 150,000, far lower than the initial value of 254,000—if this number is confirmed, it will directly ignite expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. But at this moment, Ethereum (ETH) is standing at the eye of the storm with a price of $4,408.
The bloody logic behind the expectation of interest rate cuts
The Fed's shift in monetary policy has never been a "free lunch" for the crypto market.
On the surface, interest rate cuts release liquidity, and funds flow into risk assets, so ETH, as a "tech stock alternative," should benefit. However, historical data reveals a brutal truth: after the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September 2024, ETH surged 14% in a single day, breaking through $4887, but then retraced over 20% within the following week, with a market value of $3 trillion evaporating.
Why?
The realization of interest rate cut expectations often marks the turning point when good news has been fully priced in. When the market has already digested the narrative of "loose monetary policy" in advance, its actual implementation may instead signal a withdrawal of funds. More critically, behind the downward revision of this employment data lies the hidden worry of an economic recession in the U.S.—if the job market continues to deteriorate, the decline in corporate profits will directly impact highly valued tech assets, with ETH, as the "king of crypto stocks," being the first to suffer.
The Fatal Weakness of ETH: Vulnerability Under the Liquidity Feast
Capital rotation effect: BTC's market share has dropped from 65% to 59%. Funds seem to be flowing into altcoins, but the "capital siphoning" effect of ETH is weakening. Although Layer 2 and staking sectors have risen, the growth of leading projects like Arbitrum and SSV is showing signs of fatigue. The narrative of "ETH's rise driving the entire ecosystem" is losing its effectiveness.
Technical pressure: ETH weekly RSI is overbought (over 70), with $4800 becoming a historical resistance level. If it cannot break through, a "double top" pattern will form, and the support level at $4300 is extremely weak.
Institutional attitudes are diverging: Although institutions such as Bitmine and Sharplink hold over 2.95 million ETH, spot ETF funds saw a net outflow of $1.165 billion this week, indicating that institutions are taking profits.
September 6: Three Scenarios After Data Release
Data revised down but interest rate cut by 25 basis points: ETH briefly surged before plummeting, falling below 4300 USD, with support looking at 4000 USD.
Data revisions and a 50 basis point rate cut: the market is short-term euphoric, with ETH hitting 5000 USD, but then it retraced due to "profit-taking," with 4300 USD becoming the battleground for bulls and bears.
Data not revised: interest rate cut expectations missed, ETH directly fell below $4300, starting a deep adjustment.
The bloodiest scene is unfolding:
If the employment data is revised down more than expected (such as below 150,000), the market will instantly price in "recession," and the ETH bulls will rush to liquidate their positions, causing the $4300 level to collapse like paper. On-chain data shows that the liquidation amount for ETH has reached $368 million, and the bears are watching closely—once the price breaks below a key level, the short squeeze will turn into a "panic sell-off."
Blood-tinged advice for investors
Stay away from leverage: The current funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts exceeds 0.1%, and the level of long positions is comparable to the peak of the 2021 bull market, making the risk of liquidation extremely high.
Pay attention to the altcoin spillover effect: if ETH drops, funds may flow into high Beta assets like ARB and LDO, but beware of a market-wide collapse triggered by "liquidity exhaustion."
Pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials: any "dovish" remarks from Powell before the interest rate meeting on September 18 could become the last straw for an ETH rebound— but remember, bear market rebounds are always an opportunity to escape.
From a technical perspective, ETH's current weekly RSI has exceeded 70, entering the extreme greed and fear zone, with the historical high of $4800 forming strong resistance. If it cannot break through, it will confirm a "double top" pattern. $4300 serves as a key support level, and under the pressure of retail investors closing positions and $368 million in liquidations, a drop below this level could trigger a chain reaction. The resonance between technicals and on-chain data indicates that the short-term downside risk far outweighs the upside potential, and losing $4300 may become a high probability event.
The crypto market has no "safety net", only "dancing on the edge of a knife".
As the shadow of U.S. employment data looms, the $4300 mark for ETH is destined to become a meat grinder for the bulls and bears. Is it time to catch a falling knife or to escape the peak? The answer may lie in the non-farm data on September 6th—only those who survive in the bloody crypto market will witness the next bull market. #加密市场回调 U.S. macroeconomic data on-chain.