Anxiety, a lot of anxiety. I always feel like I haven't made any money yet, but the market is already starting to shout about turning bearish, and various news is making me dizzy. Bitcoin's weekly chart is facing a MACD death cross, while Ethereum is barely holding on. Recently, Trend Research, which has won impressive results by calling for a bullish ETH from the bottom, once firmly believed in the Ethereum ecosystem, but this morning chose to quietly take losses and liquidate PENDLE and ENS.
At such moments, should we hold on or retreat? I can only keep looking through the market's voices, hoping to see if someone can "recharge my faith" and provide an outlet for this anxiety.
The Ethereum and Bitcoin game stirred by the whales.
In the past two weeks, the main character of the crypto market is none other than an ancient giant whale. Its massive sell-off of BTC to swap for ETH can be said to be the "culprit" behind the weakening of Bitcoin's market. This big player has cumulatively sold off 34,110 BTC, cashing in approximately 3.7 billion USD, and bought 813,298.84 ETH, worth about 3.66 billion USD. Currently, it still holds 49,816 BTC in its remaining two wallets, valued at around 6 billion USD. The question is: will it continue to sell? How much? It hangs over Bitcoin like a sword yet to fall. One can only say that the selling pressure is too strong.
For Ethereum, the whales' warehouse change is an obvious positive. This may be one of the important reasons why ETH has been stronger relative to BTC recently. However, Ethereum may also face challenges in the next two weeks, as 932,246 ETH are currently queued for unstaking, which could translate to a potential sell-off of around 400 million dollars that might impact the market.
Now let's watch the actions of the whales. If they can absorb Ethereum, it will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in Bitcoin. A game of existing stock is still ongoing.
Super Week: The Collision of Data and Interest Rate Cuts
In the coming weeks, the global market's attention will almost entirely be focused on the Federal Reserve. Today's CME "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 87.4%, and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of easing.
This week is truly a "super week" with the ADP non-farm employment data, ISM services PMI, and especially the core non-farm payroll report. All of these data will impact the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting decision on September 16 to 17. If a series of data, especially non-farm data, shows weakness, the market may bet that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates faster and earlier; if the overall performance is strong, it will weaken the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Regardless of the outcome, the market is destined to be highly volatile this week. For investors, caution is the only answer.
Although Powell's speech on the evening of August 22 released dovish signals, it did not provide strong guidance on the persistence and magnitude of interest rate cuts. The latest research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) points out that the market should not overinterpret Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's "dovish" remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the current context of the U.S. facing higher tariffs and tightening immigration policies, the risks of employment and inflation coexist. If inflation risks surpass employment, the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate cuts. Even if there is a 25 basis point cut in September, it does not indicate the beginning of a sustained easing cycle. CICC warns that if "stagflation-like" pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma, and market volatility may increase.
The Trump administration is trying to push the Federal Reserve Board to form a tighter team to steer policy in a dovish direction. The Federal Reserve Board is currently at full capacity with 7 members, and apart from Cook, who is currently "fighting a lawsuit" with Trump, two others appointed by the Biden administration, Jefferson and Barr, are aligned with Powell, just like Cook; Bowman, Waller, and Mian are generally regarded as supporters of Trump. If the court rules that Trump can fire Cook, Trump will quickly nominate his successor to gain a majority of supporters on the board with a 4 to 3 vote. However, this ruling is unlikely to be completed before the September meeting, but Cook's absence could lead to a tie among the three Trump-appointed members, the two Biden-appointed members, and Powell. The interest rate meeting in September could become a watershed moment for market direction.
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, stated that it was correct for investors to remain cautious in September as the Federal Reserve is resuming a moderate rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions. This long-term bullish analyst on U.S. stocks expects the S&P 500 to drop by 5% to 10% this fall, before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 points.
WLFI vampire market?
Another "super bomb" is also counting down. The Trump family crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) will launch tonight at 8 PM. Many people inevitably think of the previous TRUMP token: it made a small wave of wealth for some people, but caused the entire market to crash. Therefore, a question that many people will care about is: Will the storyline of TRUMP be replayed with WLFI?
According to the purchasing cost of WLFI investors compiled by on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa, WLFI has conducted 8 rounds of public fundraising, with a total financing amount of 2.26 billion USD. Based on the current pre-market price of 0.32 USD, the lowest cost of the first round of public offering was only 0.015 USD, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 20 times, which also means that there is a high possibility of "pouring" after WLFI goes live.
The two phases of public fundraising have made it clear that 20% of the TGE will be unlocked, while the remaining 80% will await community voting to decide. The tokens for the team/advisors/partners are locked, but there has been no clear statement regarding whether the tokens of strategic investors will be unlocked. Currently, the entire network is focused on the TGE circulation. According to data from Coinmarketcap.com, the circulation is 27.2 billion tokens, valued at approximately 8.7 billion USD. The CEO of CMC stated that this circulation data has been repeatedly confirmed with the project party, which means that the strategic round tokens will also circulate during the TGE. If this is indeed the case, it is inevitable that they will be 'poured' upon launch.
However, crypto KOL @0 xDylan_ (suspected member of the WLFI Wallet team) posted that the WLFI token economic model has been updated, with 8% allocated to Alt 5 Public Company and locked, 10% reserved for future incentive programs, points, etc. (locked, details to be announced by the official). The shares for the team and institutional investors are locked as well. Additionally, 3% is allocated for centralized exchange liquidity (CEX liquidity) and decentralized exchange liquidity (DEX LP), and 5% is allocated for investors. This means that the circulating supply accounts for 5% that is unlocked and 3% used for liquidity, totaling 8%, which translates to a circulation of 800 million tokens, valued at 2.56 billion dollars.
Odaily 星球日报 has predicted the script after the launch of WLFI in "WLFI Pre-market Slashed, Will it Rise or Fall on September 1?" Another possibility is that WLFI also has Trump's endorsement, and on the official launch day of WLFI, there is a high likelihood that Trump will congratulate WLFI or make various "shouting" statements on social media, and the ambiguous relationship with the president will also bring more hype space for WLFI.
If we consider an additional 8% of the circulating supply, it is not impossible that the price of WLFI could be continuously driven up when it is launched. However, the high FDV and potential selling pressure from strategic rounds are ticking time bombs; once the unlock ratio increases or the hype cools down, a sharp correction could still be on the horizon.
Other market voices: Bitcoin is still a belief, but caution is needed in the short term.
Hedging Logic: Gold and Bitcoin in Parallel
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has once again mentioned Bitcoin in his post, stating that Europe is facing a serious debt crisis, with France nearing a "Bastille Day-style" rebellion and Germany experiencing excessively high manufacturing costs due to energy policies, even posing a risk of internal unrest. He pointed out that since 2020, U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped by 13%, European bonds by 24%, and British bonds by 32%, leading to a loss of confidence in the major economies' ability to repay their debts in the global market. Kiyosaki indicated that Japan and China are dumping U.S. debt and turning towards gold and silver, and he reiterated his call for investors to protect themselves by holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe, also stated that gold is typically the best hedging tool when the stock market declines, while Bitcoin shows greater resilience when U.S. Treasuries are under pressure. Historical data also indicates that gold tends to rise during stock market bear markets, while Bitcoin exhibits more support during U.S. Treasury sell-offs. By 2025, gold prices have cumulatively increased by over 30%, while Bitcoin has risen by about 16.46%, reflecting investors' differentiated choices between the two amid rising yields, stock market volatility, and President Trump's support for cryptocurrencies.
Trader's Caution and Patience: An Upward Trend is Expected in Autumn 2025
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he is currently not participating in market trading. However, he needs to clarify for his followers that if they hope to see substantial fluctuations in altcoins, it is essential to rely on Bitcoin's upward breakthrough to drive the market. However, Bitcoin's performance has not met the expectations of the bulls.
Previously, Eugene had closed most of his ETH positions on August 14 to significantly reduce risk exposure, and on August 24, he stated that the bull market cycle would come to an end, and his personal ETH trading had fully concluded.
In the latest issue of the "Matrix onTarget" report, Matrixport also mentioned its shift to a more conservative stance, indicating that this round of correction may still continue. Seasonal weakness has been evident since the end of July, and stage pressure is accumulating.
This week, the U.S. employment data is about to be released, and Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. If the price further declines, it may surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that interest rate cuts are often seen as a positive for the crypto market, but they are often accompanied by setbacks.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the cryptocurrency market cycle is slowing down, with an expected upward trend in the fall of 2025. Based on the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market value), past cycles (Phase One and Phase Two) showed significant market surges reaching peaks. However, in the current phase (Phase Three), the slope of the upward trend is gradually flattening, and the cycles have become longer.
CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno posted on the X platform, stating that from a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin cannot quickly recover to $112,000, the downward support level is around $100,000. The current BTC price is reported at $107,420.
Conclusion
Whether it's the adjustments of the whales, the macroeconomic interest rate cut games, or the cautious attitude of professional traders, almost all voices are conveying a common point: the current market is in a gray area, and waiting and caution are the only strategies.
Anxiety may not disappear; it will continue to accompany us as we sway with every market fluctuation. But perhaps, this is the norm of the market — it never provides certainty, only choices.
What we can do is not to eagerly seek someone to "recharge our faith", but to find our own position amidst uncertainty and cultivate patience through repeated trials.
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The interest rate cut game remains undecided, and the Whale continues to sell. How far has the market come?
Written by: Dingdang, Odaily Daily Report
Anxiety, a lot of anxiety. I always feel like I haven't made any money yet, but the market is already starting to shout about turning bearish, and various news is making me dizzy. Bitcoin's weekly chart is facing a MACD death cross, while Ethereum is barely holding on. Recently, Trend Research, which has won impressive results by calling for a bullish ETH from the bottom, once firmly believed in the Ethereum ecosystem, but this morning chose to quietly take losses and liquidate PENDLE and ENS.
At such moments, should we hold on or retreat? I can only keep looking through the market's voices, hoping to see if someone can "recharge my faith" and provide an outlet for this anxiety.
The Ethereum and Bitcoin game stirred by the whales.
In the past two weeks, the main character of the crypto market is none other than an ancient giant whale. Its massive sell-off of BTC to swap for ETH can be said to be the "culprit" behind the weakening of Bitcoin's market. This big player has cumulatively sold off 34,110 BTC, cashing in approximately 3.7 billion USD, and bought 813,298.84 ETH, worth about 3.66 billion USD. Currently, it still holds 49,816 BTC in its remaining two wallets, valued at around 6 billion USD. The question is: will it continue to sell? How much? It hangs over Bitcoin like a sword yet to fall. One can only say that the selling pressure is too strong.
For Ethereum, the whales' warehouse change is an obvious positive. This may be one of the important reasons why ETH has been stronger relative to BTC recently. However, Ethereum may also face challenges in the next two weeks, as 932,246 ETH are currently queued for unstaking, which could translate to a potential sell-off of around 400 million dollars that might impact the market.
Now let's watch the actions of the whales. If they can absorb Ethereum, it will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in Bitcoin. A game of existing stock is still ongoing.
Super Week: The Collision of Data and Interest Rate Cuts
In the coming weeks, the global market's attention will almost entirely be focused on the Federal Reserve. Today's CME "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 87.4%, and investors are betting that the Federal Reserve is about to start a new round of easing.
This week is truly a "super week" with the ADP non-farm employment data, ISM services PMI, and especially the core non-farm payroll report. All of these data will impact the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting decision on September 16 to 17. If a series of data, especially non-farm data, shows weakness, the market may bet that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates faster and earlier; if the overall performance is strong, it will weaken the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. Regardless of the outcome, the market is destined to be highly volatile this week. For investors, caution is the only answer.
Although Powell's speech on the evening of August 22 released dovish signals, it did not provide strong guidance on the persistence and magnitude of interest rate cuts. The latest research report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) points out that the market should not overinterpret Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's "dovish" remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the current context of the U.S. facing higher tariffs and tightening immigration policies, the risks of employment and inflation coexist. If inflation risks surpass employment, the Federal Reserve may halt interest rate cuts. Even if there is a 25 basis point cut in September, it does not indicate the beginning of a sustained easing cycle. CICC warns that if "stagflation-like" pressures intensify, the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma, and market volatility may increase.
The Trump administration is trying to push the Federal Reserve Board to form a tighter team to steer policy in a dovish direction. The Federal Reserve Board is currently at full capacity with 7 members, and apart from Cook, who is currently "fighting a lawsuit" with Trump, two others appointed by the Biden administration, Jefferson and Barr, are aligned with Powell, just like Cook; Bowman, Waller, and Mian are generally regarded as supporters of Trump. If the court rules that Trump can fire Cook, Trump will quickly nominate his successor to gain a majority of supporters on the board with a 4 to 3 vote. However, this ruling is unlikely to be completed before the September meeting, but Cook's absence could lead to a tie among the three Trump-appointed members, the two Biden-appointed members, and Powell. The interest rate meeting in September could become a watershed moment for market direction.
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, stated that it was correct for investors to remain cautious in September as the Federal Reserve is resuming a moderate rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, making it difficult for traders to determine their positions. This long-term bullish analyst on U.S. stocks expects the S&P 500 to drop by 5% to 10% this fall, before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 points.
WLFI vampire market?
Another "super bomb" is also counting down. The Trump family crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) will launch tonight at 8 PM. Many people inevitably think of the previous TRUMP token: it made a small wave of wealth for some people, but caused the entire market to crash. Therefore, a question that many people will care about is: Will the storyline of TRUMP be replayed with WLFI?
According to the purchasing cost of WLFI investors compiled by on-chain analyst @ai_9684 xtpa, WLFI has conducted 8 rounds of public fundraising, with a total financing amount of 2.26 billion USD. Based on the current pre-market price of 0.32 USD, the lowest cost of the first round of public offering was only 0.015 USD, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 20 times, which also means that there is a high possibility of "pouring" after WLFI goes live.
The two phases of public fundraising have made it clear that 20% of the TGE will be unlocked, while the remaining 80% will await community voting to decide. The tokens for the team/advisors/partners are locked, but there has been no clear statement regarding whether the tokens of strategic investors will be unlocked. Currently, the entire network is focused on the TGE circulation. According to data from Coinmarketcap.com, the circulation is 27.2 billion tokens, valued at approximately 8.7 billion USD. The CEO of CMC stated that this circulation data has been repeatedly confirmed with the project party, which means that the strategic round tokens will also circulate during the TGE. If this is indeed the case, it is inevitable that they will be 'poured' upon launch.
However, crypto KOL @0 xDylan_ (suspected member of the WLFI Wallet team) posted that the WLFI token economic model has been updated, with 8% allocated to Alt 5 Public Company and locked, 10% reserved for future incentive programs, points, etc. (locked, details to be announced by the official). The shares for the team and institutional investors are locked as well. Additionally, 3% is allocated for centralized exchange liquidity (CEX liquidity) and decentralized exchange liquidity (DEX LP), and 5% is allocated for investors. This means that the circulating supply accounts for 5% that is unlocked and 3% used for liquidity, totaling 8%, which translates to a circulation of 800 million tokens, valued at 2.56 billion dollars.
Odaily 星球日报 has predicted the script after the launch of WLFI in "WLFI Pre-market Slashed, Will it Rise or Fall on September 1?" Another possibility is that WLFI also has Trump's endorsement, and on the official launch day of WLFI, there is a high likelihood that Trump will congratulate WLFI or make various "shouting" statements on social media, and the ambiguous relationship with the president will also bring more hype space for WLFI.
If we consider an additional 8% of the circulating supply, it is not impossible that the price of WLFI could be continuously driven up when it is launched. However, the high FDV and potential selling pressure from strategic rounds are ticking time bombs; once the unlock ratio increases or the hype cools down, a sharp correction could still be on the horizon.
Other market voices: Bitcoin is still a belief, but caution is needed in the short term.
Hedging Logic: Gold and Bitcoin in Parallel
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has once again mentioned Bitcoin in his post, stating that Europe is facing a serious debt crisis, with France nearing a "Bastille Day-style" rebellion and Germany experiencing excessively high manufacturing costs due to energy policies, even posing a risk of internal unrest. He pointed out that since 2020, U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped by 13%, European bonds by 24%, and British bonds by 32%, leading to a loss of confidence in the major economies' ability to repay their debts in the global market. Kiyosaki indicated that Japan and China are dumping U.S. debt and turning towards gold and silver, and he reiterated his call for investors to protect themselves by holding gold, silver, and Bitcoin.
André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe, also stated that gold is typically the best hedging tool when the stock market declines, while Bitcoin shows greater resilience when U.S. Treasuries are under pressure. Historical data also indicates that gold tends to rise during stock market bear markets, while Bitcoin exhibits more support during U.S. Treasury sell-offs. By 2025, gold prices have cumulatively increased by over 30%, while Bitcoin has risen by about 16.46%, reflecting investors' differentiated choices between the two amid rising yields, stock market volatility, and President Trump's support for cryptocurrencies.
Trader's Caution and Patience: An Upward Trend is Expected in Autumn 2025
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that he is currently not participating in market trading. However, he needs to clarify for his followers that if they hope to see substantial fluctuations in altcoins, it is essential to rely on Bitcoin's upward breakthrough to drive the market. However, Bitcoin's performance has not met the expectations of the bulls.
Previously, Eugene had closed most of his ETH positions on August 14 to significantly reduce risk exposure, and on August 24, he stated that the bull market cycle would come to an end, and his personal ETH trading had fully concluded.
In the latest issue of the "Matrix onTarget" report, Matrixport also mentioned its shift to a more conservative stance, indicating that this round of correction may still continue. Seasonal weakness has been evident since the end of July, and stage pressure is accumulating.
This week, the U.S. employment data is about to be released, and Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. If the price further declines, it may surprise most traders, but this risk cannot be ignored. Historical experience shows that interest rate cuts are often seen as a positive for the crypto market, but they are often accompanied by setbacks.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan stated that the cryptocurrency market cycle is slowing down, with an expected upward trend in the fall of 2025. Based on the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year (based on realized market value), past cycles (Phase One and Phase Two) showed significant market surges reaching peaks. However, in the current phase (Phase Three), the slope of the upward trend is gradually flattening, and the cycles have become longer.
CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno posted on the X platform, stating that from a short-term valuation perspective, if Bitcoin cannot quickly recover to $112,000, the downward support level is around $100,000. The current BTC price is reported at $107,420.
Conclusion
Whether it's the adjustments of the whales, the macroeconomic interest rate cut games, or the cautious attitude of professional traders, almost all voices are conveying a common point: the current market is in a gray area, and waiting and caution are the only strategies.
Anxiety may not disappear; it will continue to accompany us as we sway with every market fluctuation. But perhaps, this is the norm of the market — it never provides certainty, only choices.
What we can do is not to eagerly seek someone to "recharge our faith", but to find our own position amidst uncertainty and cultivate patience through repeated trials.