The global open interest of Bitcoin ETP has reached 1.47 million BTC, accounting for 7% of the total. The seasonal weakness in September may trigger a pullback in depth.

The total open interest for global Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETP) has surpassed 1.47 million BTC, accounting for approximately 7% of Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million. Among them, 11 ETFs in the United States collectively hold 1.29 million BTC, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at 746,800 BTC. Despite a net increase of 170,000 Bitcoin ETPs (valued at 18.7 billion USD) year-to-date, there was a net outflow of 301 million USD in August, while Ethereum funds attracted 3.95 billion USD during the same period. Historical data shows that September is typically the weakest month for Bitcoin, with a significant average decline. Coupled with negative factors such as institutional funds rotating to ETH and a weighted sentiment index dropping to -0.707, analysts warn that if the support level of 107,557 USD is broken, it may dip to 103,931 USD.

US ETF Dominates Bitcoin Institutional Holdings, BlackRock's Single Fund Holds 746,800 Coins

According to the latest data from HODL15Capital, Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have become the main force in institutional Holdings, with 11 products collectively holding 1.29 million BTC. BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ranks first with an open interest of 746,810 BTC, followed closely by Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with 199,500 BTC. The total Holdings of global Bitcoin ETPs reached 1.47 million BTC, accounting for 7% of the total Bitcoin supply, indicating a deepening institutionalization process. However, the growth momentum has clearly weakened, with a net outflow of $301 million from global Bitcoin ETPs in August, in stark contrast to the $3.95 billion inflow into Ethereum funds.

Whale fund rotation accelerates, 4,000 BTC converted to Ether in a single day

On-chain data shows that institutional investors are massively rotating from Bitcoin to Ether. On Monday, a well-known whale converted 4,000 BTC into 97,000 ETH, bringing its Ether holdings value to 3.8 billion USD. Arkham Intelligence reported that 9 whale addresses collectively rotated 456 million USD from BTC to ETH, possibly locking in profits before the seasonal downturn. This rotation occurs against the backdrop of historical data showing that September is the weakest month for Bitcoin, while rising gold prices and ETF approval expectations for Solana, XRP, and others have diverted market attention.

September's Historical Performance is Concerning, Weighted Sentiment Index Drops to -0.707

Historical data shows that September is exceptionally difficult for Bitcoin: it fell by 8% in 2020, 7.3% in 2021, and 3.1% in 2022. Although it increased by 4% and 7% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, this year faces dual pressures from weakened institutional demand and heightened bearish sentiment. The current Santiment weighted sentiment index is -0.707, indicating that negative sentiment dominates social media discussions. This indicator measures market bias by combining mention volume and sentiment tone; negative values suggest that investors' skepticism about short-term prospects may lead to reduced trading activity.

ETF fund flows reverse, ending four months of continuous inflow.

SosoValue data shows that in August, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 751.12 million USD, ending a four-month inflow trend. Since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, the driving force behind the asset reaching new highs has been directly related to institutional inflows. The reversal of inflows and signs of institutional interest fatigue indicate that September may face additional downward pressure. Without large-scale ETF demand support, the market may struggle to maintain bullish momentum, and if retail buyers fail to fill the gap, the asset may be more susceptible to deeper corrections.

Key technical support level 107557 USD becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears

Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin has been in a continuous fall since reaching a historical high of $123,731 on August 14, with a decline of nearly 10%. It is currently trading below $110,000, with a key support level at $107,557, and a potential dip to $103,931 if it falls below this level. The upward resistance is at $111,961. Delphi Digital warns that a Federal Reserve rate cut could trigger a short-term spike followed by a sharp pullback — unless the price remains subdued before the decision. Analyst PlanC believes that the path to $1 million may be achieved through a "tedious and disappointing" seven-year trek rather than explosive growth.

SEC Approval Update 92 Cryptocurrency ETF Applications Pending

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing 92 cryptocurrency ETF applications. A detailed spreadsheet released on August 28 shows that most applications (especially those related to Solana, XRP, and Litecoin) will receive a final decision before October. Solana and XRP are leading the ETF race, with 8 and 7 pending applications, respectively. The number of pending applications has rapidly increased from 72 in April to 92 in August, marking a significant rise in institutional interest and regulatory involvement.

Conclusion

Although institutional holdings of Bitcoin have reached an all-time high, the shift in capital flow and seasonal weakness are creating short-term pressure. The rotation of whales towards Ethereum, outflow of ETF funds, and negative sentiment index together form a perfect bearish storm. Investors need to closely monitor the defense situation at the support level of 107,557 USD; if it fails, it may trigger a deeper pullback to 103,931 USD. In the long term, the SEC's progress on the approval of 92 cryptocurrency ETF applications may inject new momentum into the market, but caution is required during the traditionally weak period in September. Changes in institutional capital allocation strategies and the Federal Reserve's policy direction will be key variables affecting the future market.