The Pokémon card craze from the perspective of a seasoned encryption user and TCG collector.

Author: simple_peanut

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Given the rising popularity of the trading card game (TCG) RWA sector, there exists a knowledge gap for non-collectors in the crypto space and non-native crypto collectors in a field they have not previously ventured into and may not be familiar with. Therefore, I decided to write this article last weekend. This article has three purposes:

• Introducing the Pokémon TCG collection hobby and its market to crypto players
• Help those who only understand one area to comprehend and point out the gaps that the Pokémon RWA protocol needs to fill or does not need to fill.
• Share views on this niche field

Individuals are cryptocurrency enthusiasts and work in this industry. They approach the crypto sector like collecting Pokémon cards and interacting with other enthusiasts—sociable, enjoy making friends, and like going out with friends, but also place a high value on personal privacy.

I started collecting Pokémon cards when I was young (paused during high school/college, but then started collecting again).

In the crypto circle, not many friends know that I have this hobby, but given the current trend, it's quite appropriate to talk about it now—it's clear from the photos below that I am a serious collector. I also have unopened cards and products. You could say I'm just riding the wave, having recently bought a bunch of these things to show off. But the fact is, the origin of these cards and products (both in the photos and in the warehouse) is built on the innocence of childhood, combined with the efforts and persistence of adulthood (I took a break during college because Pokémon wasn't "cool" back then).

For wealthy cryptocurrency players, this may not be much, but for individuals, it takes a lot of time and effort, thoughtful consideration, and a mix of intuition and luck (not professionally, but as a Pokémon collector) to develop their personal collection to this scale.

Cards from childhood (drawn from the card pack) and adulthood (purchased in previous cycles). Most of the sealed products here come from the current cycle. Other cards from previous cycles are stored in the warehouse.

Childhood Loose-leaf Binder

Given that most of the readers of this article (if any) come from the cryptocurrency field, I will not elaborate on the contents regarding $CARDS FDV and Pokémon TCG RWA protocol data, as there has already been much discussion on such topics; additionally, this article will strive to provide more insights from the perspective of Pokémon collectors/investors.

Pokémon TCG Collectibles/**/**Investment Market Cycle

In short:

• The Pokémon TCG market has cycles of prosperity and recession, which is very similar to the macro economy and/or the crypto market.
• Despite the cycles of boom and bust, the prices of Pokémon cards and sealed products have steadily risen like a staircase over the years.
• That said, like stocks or tokens, each card and each sealed product does not necessarily fluctuate in a "binary manner"—that is, a price increase does not guarantee profit.

Here, it should also be noted that in the 2000s, individuals were in their childhood to teenage years, during which they had no financial knowledge and did not understand cycles. It was not until university and adulthood that they understood and experienced cycles in the Pokémon TCG field.

Below is a rough sketch of the cycle of the Pokémon Trading Card Game experienced by individuals, along with a detailed description of the catalysts for each prosperous period.

2016 Year of the Catalyst for Prosperity Cycle:

When I was about to graduate from university, I rekindled this hobby (2016/17), coinciding with the release of the Pokémon TCG XY Evolutions series.

The reason this hobby began to gain popularity is that the XY Evolutions series cards are reprints of the original base series. Although there are slight differences, the distinctions are obvious. This nostalgia filled many young people who played the base series in their childhood, thus sparking the Pokémon craze in 2016.

Interestingly, 2016 was also the year when the Mario and Luigi Pikachu promotional cards were released – at the time, each box sold for 30 to 40 dollars. Today, the price of the full-art Mario Pikachu ranges between 10,000 and 14,000 dollars.

Catalysts of the Prosperity Cycle in 2020:

1. "Pokemon GO" (mobile game) became a global sensation after its launch.

2. COVID-19 pandemic:

• People feel bored
• Government subsidies

3. After the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, macroeconomic conditions/risk appetite have increased.

4. The Influence of Logan Paul and Other Celebrities - High-Value Cards Seen as Status Symbols:

• Logan (internet celebrity) boasts about completing the BGS 10 first edition base set with Charizard and the PSA 10 limited edition Pikachu.
• Logan publicly released the first version of the basic package supplement during the live broadcast.
• Steve Aoki (Japanese-American DJ and music producer) publicly shares his collection interests and opens Aoki Card House.

5. Many ordinary people have also followed suit – purchasing sealed products and opening them during live broadcasts, selling card packs to viewers at high prices.

Catalyst for the Prosperity Cycle in 2025:

1. The overall favorable macro environment is conducive to risk assets/bull markets.

2. Pokémon TCG launches in the Chinese market:

• Pokémon card game Chinese version officially launched in China
• Chinese players (the wealthy) are buying high-value cards one after another, as these cards hold little value for them.

3. Pokémon Pocket (Pokemon Pocket) launch - opening digital card packs on mobile, attracting people to experience this feeling in real life.

4. The rise of card shows and card dealers; the opinions of card dealers on YouTube are becoming increasingly popular - people enjoy seeing trades being made.

5. Chain reactions of the aforementioned factors: (i) Crypto native users and RWA protocol users are buying sealed products in their entirety for investment and/or resale to users; (ii) Kevin O’Leary recently announced that he has also become a card collector (sports cards); (iii) Various streamers are once again purchasing sealed products, just like in the last cycle, selling them at a premium to consumers and showcasing them during live broadcasts.

Similarities of Each Round of Pokémon Frenzy / Common Features:

• Positive macro/risk appetite environment
• The Pokémon Company always manages to cleverly introduce a catalyst that may evoke nostalgia.
• Just like in the crypto space, ordinary people (i.e., non-Pokémon card collectors) are starting to talk about it, ask you about it, and share cards on Instagram.
• Just like in the cryptocurrency field, new players are entering the market.
• Pokémon product supply is tight; scalpers have appeared, fighting in stores like Target and Walmart for Pokémon card products (an incident of stabbing occurred in July), and every cycle sees disputes arising from queuing.
• Celebrity Participation: Logan Paul and Steve Aoki were the highlights of the 2020 craze, while Kevin O’Leary is the highlight of the 2025 craze.
• Streamers Emergence: A large number of sealed products were purchased (further driving up the prices of sealed products), and then opened and sold to viewers during live broadcasts for profit.

The new changes in 2025 (from a financial and market cycle perspective, may ultimately be irrelevant):

• The rise of merchants and card exhibitions + Merchant perspective videos - A TV show experience like "Pawn Stars"
• The Chinese market and major buyers in China
• Crypto native participants and cryptocurrency whales

The similarities between cryptocurrency and Pokémon TCG collection/investment

• Both are forms of "gambling": whether approached in a responsible and well-planned manner, or in a Degen way (such as unboxing, opening blind boxes, trading NFTs/meme coins, etc.), both fields trigger psychological reactions between the gambling mentality of the brain / the human instinct of conformity and the instinct of hoarding.
• Both have cycles of prosperity and recession: people's attitudes/views towards them can be fickle and opportunistic—cheering during prosperity, but scoffing during recession. (Just like last year when people mocked Ethereum, and this year they take pride in holding Ethereum.)
• Both are asset classes with high volatility: both have outperformed traditional asset classes (such as the S&P 500).

Subtle Differences: What Crypto Natives and Pure Pokémon Collectors**/**Investors Need to Know

This section will place more emphasis on "what cryptocurrency enthusiasts need to know," as most readers of this article are crypto individuals, rather than purely Pokémon collectors/investors.

• Buying tokens or meme coins of the Pokémon RWA protocol may seem silly, yet there are opportunities to make money. Just like cards printed with Pokémon designs, they may seem unremarkable, but they can also yield profits.
• Through blockchain technology, the TCG RWA protocol has the potential to provide collectors with unique items. However, in its current state, its greatest potential has yet to be realized.
• It is commendable that using cards as collateral for loans brings immense value to crypto players and collectors—this is the advantage of the TCG RWA protocol over existing traditional solutions in this field.
• Just like Pokémon cards and sealed products, in the crypto space, the rise of tokens does not mean that all "ships can sail smoothly" (bring profits).

What Crypto Enthusiasts Need to Know (If You Don’t Care, You Can Ignore)

1. Just like collecting cryptocurrencies, collecting Pokémon requires experience, skills, knowledge, intuition, and luck.

2. The idea that the Pokémon RWA protocol can solve the problem of liquidity fragmentation is foolish for the following reasons:

• Taking the stock market as an example, there are many traditional venues, such as Saxo, IBKR, etc. Beyond tokenized stocks, there is a broader world and a larger market. Similarly, in the TCG secondary market, most of the trading volume occurs on eBay, TCGplayer, through Telegram OTC (over-the-counter transactions), numerous card shows around the world, and places similar to Facebook Marketplace.
• In addition, the liquidity for tokenized stocks on the current RWA protocols is very weak. Moreover, an increasing number of RWA protocols are offering tokenized stocks in their own packaging, which will only exacerbate the fragmentation of the stock market.

3. For non-collectors native to crypto, it may be true that the TCG RWA protocol is doing something novel/revolutionary, but for collectors, this is mostly just a myth:

• Marketplaces like eBay and card certification agencies like PSA already have vault custody services—send your cards to the vault, and they will even verify whether the cards (i.e., graded cards) are legitimate. You can choose to leave the cards there for easy trading, or opt to redeem and have the physical cards sent back to you. Comparing the proposal of the TCG RWA protocol with existing traditional solutions, they do not have much of a moat in their current state.
• The tokenization of assets (such as stocks or government bonds) is highly feasible for several reasons, one major reason being that blockchain technology can provide t+0 settlement—(i) this improves upon traditional payment solutions' t+1/t+2 settlement times, (ii) it extends trading hours from Monday to Friday to 24/7 throughout the year, and (iii) buyers of stocks or government bonds do not want to physically hold the assets. In contrast, enthusiastic collectors/investors often wish to actually own the cards—emotionally, they enjoy having the physical cards, and practically, they like to take them out occasionally to appreciate the physical cards.
• However, when cards are used as collateral for loans, the tokenization of the cards is feasible—this represents a significant value enhancement for consumers, and for non-crypto-native TCG RWA protocols, this can be seen as transformative.
• That said, there are also some investors who participate purely for profit rather than out of love for Pokémon or art—perhaps these non-crypto native collectors can benefit from the TCG RWA protocol. However, such solutions already exist, just without blockchain accounting technology.
• There are already similar gambling activities on traditional platforms — for example, Whatnot. However, I want to add that the Gacha element in the TCG RWA protocol is at least as good, if not better, than the Gacha on traditional platforms.

4. Just like the tokens in the current cycle of the cryptocurrency space, in the Pokémon card domain, a rising tide does not necessarily lift all boats.

5. Just like tokens, there are blue-chip stocks, mid-range tokens, and low-priced/meme coins, which have a small chance of skyrocketing, but are very likely to never surge and will only maintain at a few cents/dollars.

6. Unlike those mediocre meme coins or NFTs, high-quality Pokémon cards and sealed products will not go to zero - this has been true throughout the history of the Pokémon TCG (about 30 years).

7. There is a subjective and personal emotional (sometimes even sentimental) connection between collectors and the art and Pokémon cards. This intangible factor is crucial and is a key distinguishing factor between cards and tokens, stocks, or meme coins.

8. Today I can sell 1 Bitcoin or 10 billion Meme Coins, and if the price skyrockets tomorrow, I can easily buy them back at various exchanges at any time. However, to give an extreme example, if I sell a Pikachu illustrator card that has only 41 copies left in the world today, I might have to wait several months or even years before I have the chance to buy it back. (This brings up discussions about fungibility and non-fungibility, supply, trading venues, and so on.)

Alright, so what?

Is the TCG RWA protocol a necessary solution?

If you read the content written above, you will find that the TCG RWA protocol has not truly created anything revolutionary at this point. Apart from lending, it serves as another channel for gambling and trading for crypto-native non-collectors and crypto-native TCG collectors, similar to meme coins and NFTs. However, such solutions already exist, so from the collector's perspective, the TCG RWA protocol is not seen as filling a gap that existing traditional solutions do not cover.

That said, I still believe that the TCG RWA protocol can (1) attempt to compete with existing traditional solutions, and (2) if able to fully leverage blockchain technology, it can also fill certain gaps. Moreover, I hope that this situation can happen, as it will only benefit the development of both this hobby and the cryptocurrency field.

About Market Cycles and How to Handle Collections

Given the market cycles, now that we know there are periods of boom and bust in the Pokémon TCG market, you might say that one should take profits or sell part of their collection at some point.

Individuals would not sell. From a purely financial perspective, you can call me a fool, and I would agree. However, I want to emphasize again that just because it is different from cryptocurrencies, selling something now may mean you can't immediately repurchase it at the desired price. Rare cards are hard to find, and the owners are not willing to easily sell their cards.

Based on the entry time, individuals are willing to bear a certain loss because they entered very early. That said, just like in trading, both entry and exit are important, and individuals will also consider this when dealing with cards or products in their collection. You should think the same way, just like in trading.

What is concerning is that those who venture into the trading space as non-collectors of crypto-native assets will sell off and abandon this hobby once Pokémon cards no longer bring them substantial profits, or the market crashes—because, just like stocks or cryptocurrencies, non-collectors of crypto-native assets merely view these collectibles as financial assets, rather than something with an emotional connection. However, acknowledging this is inevitable, as is the case in any other market during bull and bear cycles, individuals do not seem to mind.

As this narrative comes to an end with the broader bull market or the Pokémon card bull market cycle, this article may gradually be forgotten, and the time spent writing it may be a pure waste. However, I believe the information here transcends the Pokémon card bull market cycle, so feel free to take a look if you wish.

Pokémon Cards RWA Protocol's Potential Impact on the Pokémon Card Market

Many crypto players trading encrypted Pokémon cards may not actually have any emotional attachment to the cards themselves; they participate merely for profit, gambling, or both.

Like most hyped concepts in the cryptocurrency space, the craze won't last long, as most users of the TCG RWA protocol are crypto users. Furthermore, since many players trading crypto versions of Pokémon cards have no emotional attachment to the cards themselves, when this concept falls out of favor, the cards will be sold off, and the protocol's tokens will be sold off as well—just like the treatment of those worthless meme coins and ordinary NFTs.

Cards sold off by users may be repurchased by the protocol, but if the protocol cannot sustain itself due to decreased revenue, these cards may also be sold off by the protocol itself, or the founders may return to the traditional Pokémon trading card market with their inventory of cards.

This is why the hype/narrative around Pokémon cards RWA could have a negative impact on the Pokémon card market, harming those non-crypto native Pokémon card collectors who may not even know the reason. For newcomers, this could be a lesson, or they might completely give up on the hobby. Similarly, for newcomers in the crypto space, if their initial on-chain experiences are to follow the crowd and buy $CARDS, and $CARDS drops after they enter, they will fear participating in the crypto space.

That said, a counterargument to this is that, from a more macro perspective, the RWA field of Pokémon cards is too small to have a long-term impact on such a large TCG market. I personally agree with this.

Anyway, I hope this article inspires everyone. If not, at least I hope it brings you some gains.

Tools: Card/Pricing and Tracking Mechanism for Products

How to assess card value during trading**/**How to track prices usually

Here is how Pokémon card collectors/investors negotiate prices in practice, as well as the tools you can use—different people have different philosophies/methods, which may change according to their own circumstances:

1. Check the average of the past X transactions completed on eBay: This is the most commonly used method when trying to reach an agreement in actual transactions.

2. Aggregator: Price Chart (

3. Other Aggregators - Collectr (Mobile App): Similar to the above. Suitable for recording your cards and sealed products, buy and sell prices, and providing an overall estimated view of your portfolio. There are other similar alternatives.

4. TCGPlayer (tcgplayer.com) - Similar to the above situation. However, the prices here mostly reflect those of ungraded original cards or products, with conditions ranging from lightly used to nearly new.

Defects in Market Pricing of TCG/Additional Factors

The pricing of the TCG market is different from that of the cryptocurrency market, where there are oracles that obtain price references from major CEX and DEX - it is more centralized. However, the pricing in the TCG market is more decentralized.

For many years, people have built aggregators that summarize sold items from major marketplaces like eBay. However, it is important to note that:

• Many "over-the-counter" (OTC) trades are conducted in informal markets such as card exhibitions, Facebook Marketplace, and Telegram/WhatsApp groups, and are not tracked. Therefore, pricing remains somewhat fragmented and inefficient.
• Many people engage in arbitrage between online trading and over-the-counter/offline trading—merchants at card shows are conducting such operations on a large scale, with their main source of income similar to that of market makers or liquidity providers, as they earn from price spreads, primarily relying on trading volume and volatility.
• Despite improvements in pricing by these aggregators, there are still some manipulators who raise prices in auctions to manipulate the pricing of these aggregators, solely to "inflate their own prices."

Below are some typical participants/players in this hobby area:

1. Scalpers/Resellers: Speculative opportunists. During prosperous cycles, many people flock to this hobby field, and they can leave just as easily as they arrived. It can be said that they are the least interested and most lacking in enthusiasm among the group. Some people even know very little about Pokémon itself and come solely for economic gain.

2. Collectors/Investors:

• Collectors/investors can play their own games in their own way—many of these individuals are able to approach this hobby in a wise and financially literate manner, possessing genuine passion while also keeping an investment perspective in mind.
• Others may simply collect and purchase things that are worthless and will not appreciate, purely because they like them— and this liking itself is also invaluable.
• Just like traders, some people may trade frequently in a short period of time, while others take a slow and steady approach or invest through dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Some may just keep buying without selling, purely out of passion.

3. Suppliers: They appeared at the card exhibition, with varying degrees of passion for the cards. Most of them are very enthusiastic. They can be seen as market makers / liquidity providers in the crypto space.

4. Distributors: If you know any distributors, they are likely to be veteran figures and are probably associated with the company. They have direct connections with the Pokémon Company and can purchase large quantities at low prices. These individuals supply sealed products to Pokémon Centers and some card shops. To become a distributor, it mainly relies on relationships built over many years, and they must continuously purchase Pokémon TCG products regardless of market conditions.

5. Dealers of dealers: Similar to the above situation, but without long-term operation. It could be B2B (for example, supplying to card shops) or B2C (for example, selling to collectors/investors).

I hope the above information is helpful to you. As an experienced collector, I sincerely hope that you can maintain this hobby even after the Pokémon craze ends. Just like the cryptocurrency cycles, the end of a craze promotes exits, but there will still be new entrants. If you are participating purely for profit, then I wish you good luck.