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The important non-farm payroll data set to be released soon will provide key clues for the Fed's decision on whether to cut interest rates in September. The latest economic indicators show that the job market continues to weaken, adding weight to the decision to lower rates.
Recent economic data is concerning. For the week ending August 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States reached 237,000, which not only exceeded expectations but also set a new high in nearly two months. Although the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level.
More concerning is the sluggish growth in private sector employment. The ADP report shows that in August, private enterprises added only 54,000 jobs, far below last month's 107,000 and market expectations, further confirming the ongoing weakness in the job market.
These data strengthen the market's expectations for the Fed to possibly cut interest rates in September. Currently, the market has almost fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut, with expected probability approaching 100%.
If the non-farm payroll data released tonight is also poor, expectations for interest rate cuts may further escalate. This could lead to a weakening of the dollar, and investors may shift more funds towards other asset classes, including the cryptocurrency market.
As economic data continues to weaken, market attention on the Fed's policy direction is increasing. The upcoming non-farm payroll report will undoubtedly be a key factor influencing market trends, and investors should closely monitor this important economic indicator.