As the US employment data for August is about to be released, financial markets are closely watching the next move of the Federal Reserve. According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, traders almost unanimously believe that a 25 basis point rate cut will occur in September, with a probability as high as 99.3%. However, data from the Polymarket platform is relatively cautious, suggesting an 88% likelihood of a rate cut.

This heightened expectation of interest rate cuts is not limited to the short term. Trading in the derivatives market shows that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve may cumulatively cut rates by 125 basis points by the end of next year, lowering the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% to about 3%.

Although the market generally has a positive outlook on the prospect of interest rate cuts, we also need to be wary of the risks that overly high expectations may bring. Historical experience shows that when there is a significant deviation between market expectations and actual policies, it can lead to severe fluctuations in the financial markets.

Therefore, when making decisions, investors should not only pay attention to the upcoming employment data, but also comprehensively consider various factors such as inflation trends, economic growth, and the public speeches of Federal Reserve officials, in order to more accurately assess the future direction of monetary policy.

Regardless, tonight's employment report will undoubtedly be the focus of the market, and its results may have a significant impact on short-term market trends. We will continue to monitor this important economic indicator and its potential effects on the financial markets.