Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: Buy the Dips momentum is strong, but analysts warn that there is still a risk of falling below 100,000 dollars.

Despite Bitcoin investors actively buying during the recent fall, analysts warn that the market may still experience a deeper pullback. On-chain data analytics firm Glassnode reports that since mid-August, Bitcoin has attracted stable demand between $108,000 and $116,000. However, the profitability of short-term holders remains fragile, and market sentiment has shifted from "euphoria" to neutral. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a bearish "falling wedge" pattern, with a key support level at $100,750. If this level is breached, the price could fall towards the Fibonacci level of $93,600.

Glassnode data reveals a cooling of market sentiment

According to data from Glassnode, since mid-August, Bitcoin has attracted stable demand between $108,000 and $116,000. After the market pulled back from the frenzied highs, investors buying the dip quickly filled this "gap", indicating that a constructive long-term bottom is forming, but it does not guarantee a breakthrough in the short term.

Bitcoin is currently hovering in the range of 104,000 to 116,000 dollars. Glassnode pointed out that the market fell out of its "euphoric cost benchmark range" on August 19, entering a more neutral structure, which typically signals consolidation rather than upward momentum.

The profit situation of short-term holders also highlights the vulnerability of the market. During the pullback, the profit supply ratio plummeted from over 90% to 42%, before rebounding to about 60%. To restore market confidence, Bitcoin must reclaim the range of $114,000 to $116,000, so that most new buyers can achieve profits again. If this does not happen, market sentiment may remain shaky.

The fund flow also shows signs of cooling. The spot Bitcoin ETF, which once absorbed thousands of Bitcoins daily, now has an inflow of just over 500 Bitcoins per day. The overheated futures funding rate in July has returned to normal, indicating that speculative demand is fading.

Technical Analysis: BTC price points to $100,750

(Source: TradingView)

The Bitcoin chart shows a "falling wedge" pattern, with its support level coinciding with the dashed trend line at $100,750 and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $104,400. Once the price decisively falls below, it could be dragged towards the deeper Fibonacci level of $93,600.

The current market momentum remains weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 49, close to neutral, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator remains negative, indicating limited buying pressure. This suggests that Bitcoin may test the level of $100,750 again before any rebound. If the bulls can hold this level, the wedge pattern may turn bullish, but if they fail to hold it, it could open the way to the range of $93,000 to $95,000.

Market Outlook: Potential Bullish Breakout

The "falling wedge" pattern also has bullish potential. Historically, once the selling momentum is exhausted, such wedge formations often break upward.

If the price breaks through the wedge's upper trend line (currently close to 112,000), it will return the profitability of short-term holders to positive territory and restore market confidence. Under this bullish breakout, its technical target may extend to 123,500, which aligns with the estimated increase of the wedge and the 0.0 Fibonacci pullback level.

Conclusion

The current Bitcoin market is at a critical crossroads. On one hand, strong dip buyers seem to be building a solid long-term bottom above $100,000; on the other hand, on-chain data and technical indicators indicate that market momentum is weakening and there is a risk of further pullbacks. The next direction of the market will depend on whether the bulls can successfully defend the key psychological and technical support level of $100,000. Investors need to closely monitor price action to determine whether the falling wedge will break down to trigger a deeper pullback or break upward to reignite the previous bullish momentum.