The price of Ethereum (ETH) has recently attracted close attention from investors, currently hovering around $4309. Technical analysis shows that $4271 is a key support level, and if it breaks below, it may further decline to $4205. The upper resistance is at $4352, and if broken, it may challenge $4428. Currently, the BOLL indicator shows that the price is close to the lower band, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a low level, suggesting a possible rebound in the short term. Investors should focus on the price fluctuation between $4271 and $4352.

Meanwhile, the latest US non-farm payroll data has sparked widespread discussion in the market. The data shows that the number of new jobs added was only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Even more noteworthy is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics made significant downward revisions to the data for the previous two months, which has raised questions about the authenticity of the data.

Historically, non-farm payroll data has always garnered attention for its impact on the cryptocurrency market. For instance, the strong non-farm payroll data from last June led to a 4.5% drop in Bitcoin prices in a single day. However, this time, the weak data unexpectedly triggered market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a phenomenon that reflects investors' skepticism about the Fed's policies.

Non-farm payroll data typically affects the cryptocurrency market through three avenues: first, it directly influences the US dollar index, with weaker data often enhancing risk aversion, benefiting assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum that are considered "digital gold"; second, it impacts the Federal Reserve's policy orientation, as expectations for interest rate cuts increase, institutional funds may flow more into cryptocurrency ETFs; finally, it affects market sentiment, as the credibility of the data decreases, it may prompt investors to turn more towards decentralized assets.

The current market is in a dual uncertainty of data authenticity and policy expectations. Although the technical analysis shows that Ethereum has strong support around $4271, the controversy over non-farm data may become a short-term favorable factor. However, investors should also be wary of the risk of "good news being fully priced in." If the market overly bets on interest rate cuts, a sharp correction may occur once policy expectations fail.

In this complex market environment, investors need to maintain rational analysis and strictly control risks, which is key to long-term survival in the cryptocurrency market. The market is always filled with uncertainty, but through in-depth research and cautious decision-making, opportunities can still be found amidst the fluctuations.