Interest rate cut = big pump? Don't rush! The 9.18 interest rate cut node is approaching, how will the BTC market move? How to adjust positions?

As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18 approaches, more and more friends are asking me: Will the market soar directly after the rate cut, or even start a new bull market?
In fact, I mentioned in my previous article: while interest rate cuts are worth looking forward to, one must not blindly bet on a "mindless bull". Many people have this doubt because they haven't seen the truth from economic logic and historical trends. Today, we won't beat around the bush; we'll directly review the actual performance of BTC during the last interest rate cut cycle, speaking with data, and discuss how to rationally adjust positions moving forward—remember, an interest rate cut does not equal an immediate flood of liquidity and a big pump in the market.
History has already provided the answer: not necessarily!
The current market rhythm is highly similar to that of 2019 - when the market had also preemptively digested the "expected rate cuts", ultimately giving a lesson to those blindly optimistic. Looking back at 2019, the Federal Reserve made three rate cuts, and the rhythm and BTC's response are very worth reminiscing about:
· July 31: Interest rate cut by 25 basis points, the first rate cut since the financial crisis;
· September 18: The second interest rate cut of 25 basis points coincides with this year's Node.
· October 30: The third interest rate cut by 25 basis points.
There is an old saying in the crypto world: "When good news is exhausted, it turns into bad news." After these three interest rate cuts, BTC experienced short-term corrections twice. The notion that "interest rate cuts must lead to a rise" has never been valid from the beginning.
Currently, BTC is at the boundary between bull and bear markets—fluctuating near the daily MA120. During this phase, it is more important to remain vigilant and manage risks rather than being blindly optimistic or increasing leverage. Especially as we enter September, the market often experiences emotional games before key nodes, and the risks of chasing highs are significant.
Next, we will focus on solving two problems: How will BTC perform in the future? How should the Position be adjusted?
In terms of the market, Bitcoin is currently undergoing a weekly level adjustment, with three key supports worth noting:
1. First support: $108,000. I have emphasized multiple times that this is the short-term bull-bear dividing line. Once it is lost, the probability of a downward test is relatively high;
2. Second support: $98,000. This area has accumulated a large amount of chips, is a key mid-term support, and is also a battleground for both bulls and bears;
3. Third support: 94,000 USD. If it pulls back to this level, it will instead be a layout opportunity - consider spot buying and moderately allocating low leverage, which offers a very high cost-performance ratio.
Now let's look at the impact of the interest rate cut on September 18: The results were announced in the early morning Beijing time, and it is highly likely to only trigger a short-term rebound, but it will be difficult to change the main line of weekly level adjustments - after the rebound, it is expected to still fall back to accumulate strength.
My personal interpretation is: BTC is likely to first dip around $98,000, quickly washing out high leverage positions, then consolidating for about 2 days, before rapidly recovering above $105,000, and then entering a range of $105,000–$110,000 to continue oscillating.
The real big market is expected to start in October. As for this round's BTC target, I still look forward to breaking through $150,000 — but the prerequisite is that you must smoothly get through the current adjustment period and not lose your position in the fluctuations.
Lastly, I want to say: trading is not about betting on short-term fluctuations, but about grasping the big trends and maintaining a broad perspective. Only by calmly responding and understanding the logic behind adjustments can you seize the opportunities that belong to you and earn profits within your understanding.