What if the denominator is truly worthless?

(for the next years)

1 - USD macro trend shift?
2 - Bitcoin effect?
3 - How I'm playing it

The dollar has been range-bound since 1986, basically trading from one extreme to the other, deviating above or below, and then moving to the other side of the range.

Simple range facts:

> When an asset is ranging, the highest probability is for more ranging
> A deviation and return inside the range increases the probability of moving to the other side
> Acceptance inside (lower low after a top deviation, or higher high after a bottom deviation) makes it even more probable

As you can see in the chart above, a down or uptrend historically took 5-10 years.

Bitcoin was born at the bottom deviation and grew from $0 to $120,000 during the dollar’s 10-year uptrend. In this environment, the 4-year cycles took shape with the familiar bull and bear markets.

We formed our bull markets when the dollar paused its uptrend and went for a higher low. Once the dollar pushed higher again, it triggered our bear markets.

But what if the dollar now heads into a 5-to 10-year-long downtrend?

I genuinely believe that, based on this chart, my higher time frame bias for the dollar is down towards the lows because:

> The dollar has been range-bound, so I expect more ranging, and we’re currently at the highs.
> A deviation has formed.
> Bearish market structure is showing back inside (acceptance)

The tricky part is that this is a higher time frame range. But if we forget the time frame for a second, perfectly normal range price action could be:
> An instant drop
> Or, like at the bottom (when Bitcoin was born), extended ranging, which, on this time frame, could feel like forever.

We even revisited the lows again at the bottom. If that happens in this case before breaking down, it could keep us in our familiar 4-year structure a little longer.

For me, the macro outlook on the dollar suggests we may enter (on the macro) a new paradigm where the 4-year Bitcoin cycle changes.

The 4-year cycle was formed in an environment where:

> The dollar was trending up on higher time frames
> Bull and bear periods were shaped by the short breaks the dollar took in its uptrend

If the dollar starts trending down on the macro, it would mean:

> A weaker dollar and a broader downtrend
> Dollar longer downtrends vs the other way around, longer uptrends.
> More aggressive up periods we’ve known

Before, when the dollar had strong up periods, it meant deep bear markets for us. When the dollar had short consolidation periods, it meant bull markets for us.

Now it changes: we’ll still see those same consolidation periods, but instead of a strong dollar up move sending us deep into a bear, we could get a strong dollar down move fueling us higher.

If that happens, it only makes sense that the 4-year cycle changes into:
> Longer and more aggressive bull markets
> Shorter and more tempered bear markets

Bitcoin has never experienced a macro dollar downtrend, but gold has.

The last time the dollar deviated at the top of the range and trended down to the low, it sent gold into a 3,800-day supercycle, moving from $250 to $1,800.

Pretty poetic that at the dollar deviation we had:

USD
> Debt explosion
> Historic money printing (40% of supply created at the deviation).

CRYPTO
– Presidents and countries openly backing crypto
– The US is adopting it at rocket speed
– Spot ETFs are now tradable
– Institutions and public companies pouring in billions