Recent adjustments to non-farm payroll data have sparked strong reactions in the market, with investors focusing their attention on the Fed's policy decisions. Many analysts believe that the Fed should bear primary responsibility for a potential economic recession.

In recent years, the Fed's policy direction has sparked considerable controversy. In 2021, when the inflation rate soared to 5%, the Fed insisted that it was merely a temporary phenomenon and continued to implement quantitative easing policies. However, when the inflation rate dropped to 3% in 2025, the Fed appeared particularly cautious, refusing to cut interest rates, citing concerns about a rebound in inflation. This seemingly contradictory attitude has raised questions in the market.

In fact, the Fed's decisions are not solely based on economic factors. As the Chairman of the Fed, Powell faces multiple pressures. He must prevent inflation from resurfacing while also avoiding blame for causing an economic recession. For the general public, rising prices are unpleasant, but the issue of unemployment is even more serious. Therefore, once employment data shows weakness, Powell may quickly take measures to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, especially since he has previously stated that the U.S. economy has achieved a soft landing.

In addition, the Fed's decisions are inevitably influenced by political factors. Some believe that the Fed has now become a tool for the Democrats to counter Trump, and political struggles have interfered with the normal formulation of monetary policy.

Overall, the Fed's policy-making process is far more complex than it appears on the surface. Although its public statements emphasize controlling inflation, actual decision-making may consider political factors and employment conditions more. If the economy does fall into a recession, the Fed cannot escape its responsibility. In this complex economic and political environment, investors need to analyze the Fed's policy intentions more comprehensively, rather than simply believing its public statements.