Recently, discussions in the financial sector regarding the Fed's September monetary policy meeting have become increasingly heated. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates this month, but there are still differences regarding the extent of the rate cut.

According to the latest data from the FedWatch Tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market fully expects a rate cut in September. Among them, about 89% probability supports a 25 basis points cut, while 11% probability leans towards a larger cut of 50 basis points.

This widespread expectation is primarily based on two factors: first, the latest revised employment data shows that the labor market is weaker than previously thought. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' revised data indicates that during the period from April 2024 to March 2025, non-farm payrolls actually decreased by 910,000, far exceeding previous estimates. This data suggests a cooling labor market, providing a basis for the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Secondly, the financial markets have already priced in a rate cut. The interest rate futures market is fully betting on a rate cut in September, the dollar index has weakened accordingly, and gold prices and the US stock market have shown an upward trend.

It is worth noting that some senior executives of financial institutions have even called for more aggressive rate cuts. However, most market participants still prefer a relatively moderate cut of 25 basis points.

Regardless of the final outcome, the Fed's decision this time will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global financial markets. Investors and analysts are closely watching, hoping that the September Fed meeting will provide clear policy guidance for the market.