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The Fed's interest rate cut is a significant event with far-reaching implications, and its importance cannot be underestimated. This decision is expected to alter the trajectory of global economic development, warranting our close follow.
Looking back at the economic situation in recent years, we can clearly see the enormous impact of monetary policy on the market. During the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the Fed took emergency interest rate cuts, which not only prevented a collapse of the U.S. stock market but also propelled a strong rebound in the stock market. The A-share market also rose, climbing from 2,650 points to 3,700 points, continuing to rise for a whole year. During this period, the Chinese economy performed exceptionally well, and the general public widely felt the improvement in the economic environment.
However, after the Fed announced interest rate hikes at the end of 2021, the situation took a sharp turn for the worse. The A-share market quickly peaked and fell from 3700 points to 2900 points in just four months. Throughout the interest rate hike cycle, the A-share market remained sluggish. The warnings from the Fed chairman at the time were also confirmed: the interest rate hike phase indeed brought about many uncertainties, affecting not only the financial markets but also possibly triggering geopolitical conflicts indirectly. Over the past three years, the global economic situation has generally been sluggish.
In September this year, the Fed signaled a rate cut, and China immediately launched a series of favorable policies, leading the A-share market to soar 1,000 points within six trading days, known in the market as the "924 market trend." Now, after pausing rate cuts for nine months, the Fed may begin a new round of rate cuts. Although it is difficult to replicate the grandeur of the "924 market trend," a similar good market trend like that from the end of June to the end of August this year is likely to occur again.
Based on these analyses, I predict that the A-share market is very likely to restart an upward trend from the end of September to the beginning of October this year. In the next two to three years, China's economy is expected to gradually warm up, and the quality of life for ordinary people is also expected to improve.
Keep a close follow on economic trends, seize market opportunities, and let us look forward to the new opportunities brought by economic recovery.