Tonight at 20:30, the US will release the August CPI data, which is undoubtedly the most关注的 event in the cryptocurrency market tonight. Looking back at the past three CPI data releases, the price of Bit has fallen each time, but we need to recognize that this situation may be different from before.

The market's past reactions were primarily driven by immediate feedback on expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. For example, last August, the year-on-year CPI exceeded expectations, reaching 8.3%, raising concerns in the market about the possibility of significant rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which led to a sharp fall in Bitcoin within a short period. Similar situations occurred after the CPI data was released in June and May of last year.

However, the current market environment has changed significantly. The market generally expects the CPI annual rate announced tonight to be around 2.9%, and the core CPI may remain stable or slightly decline. More notably, the market has widely believed that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

This expected shift means that even if CPI data fluctuates slightly, it may not trigger as severe a market reaction as before. Investors are paying more attention to signals of a Fed policy shift rather than individual inflation data.

For the cryptocurrency market, changes in this macro environment may bring new opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the shift in Federal Reserve policy may provide support for risk assets; on the other hand, the market's expectations have already been partially reflected in current prices.

Therefore, after the release of tonight's CPI data, the market reaction may depend more on the degree to which the data deviates from expectations and how it affects people's judgment of the Federal Reserve's future policies. Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on the data itself and the subsequent market interpretations, rather than simply making judgments based on historical patterns.

In this uncertain market environment, it is particularly important to maintain a rational and cautious investment attitude. At the same time, it is essential to recognize that the long-term development trend of the encryption currency market may be more driven by the development and innovation of the industry itself, rather than short-term fluctuations in macroeconomic data.