Recently, I revisited the chart of the bull run in 2014 and found surprising similarities with this year's market trend. This similarity has prompted me to deeply reflect on the cyclical nature of the market.

The market during both periods showed a slow climbing trend, repeatedly testing the ten-day and twenty-day moving averages during the upward process before continuing to rise, which was then followed by an accelerated upward phase. Notably, both periods experienced a stagnation phenomenon after the acceleration, followed by a pullback and then a rise, forming a typical M-top pattern. Interestingly, both also made a second attempt to climb after testing the twenty-day moving average again, reaching the high point of the M-top, forming a second test, and ultimately ending with a peak and a retreat.

However, subtle differences do exist. On that day in 2014, a bullish candle was formed, while the recent breakout attempt closed with a bearish candle. In 2014, the next day saw a gap down opening, resulting in a large bearish candle.

Although the current macro environment is different from that of 2014, many may question the validity of this comparison. However, it is undeniable that the charts from these two periods are almost a one-to-one replication. When a certain pattern persists for several months, its reference value cannot be ignored.

Of course, we must also be vigilant about the pitfalls of overinterpreting historical data. The market is complex and ever-changing; historical similarities do not necessarily mean the future will repeat itself. Such comparisons serve more as a perspective for thought rather than a basis for prediction.

In the face of this historical echo, investors can't help but ask: will the market repeat the significant decline of 2014 on the next trading day? The answer to this question may only be provided by time. Before that, maintaining rational observation and cautious operation might be the wise choice.