Recently, U.S. economic data has shown a complex situation, posing challenges for the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming meeting. This expectation is largely based on the recent weak performance of the labor market, which shows that the average monthly new jobs added was only 29,000 over the three months ending in August, and in July, the number of unemployed exceeded job vacancies for the first time.

However, the actual situation faced by the decision-making level is much more complex than it appears. On one hand, inflation remains above the target level, the stock market continues to hit new highs, and the unemployment rate stays at a relatively low level of 4.3%, which seems to not support interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the weak signals from the labor market cannot be ignored. The Fed needs to find a balance between these two seemingly contradictory economic indicators.

In addition to the interest rate decision itself, the market is also closely watching the Fed's predictions for future economic trends. In particular, people are eager to understand whether the Fed will adjust its expectations for interest rate cuts this year, and whether Fed Chair Powell will signal a clearer policy shift.

Another point of contention is the level of the neutral interest rate. Currently, the benchmark federal funds rate is around 4.3%. Most officials believe that the neutral interest rate is around 3%, but some argue it should be higher. This divergence directly affects the pace and scope of future rate cuts.

It is noteworthy that this meeting is also facing rare political pressure. The U.S. political sphere has challenged the independence of the Fed, which requires Powell to be particularly cautious in policy-making. He must respond to political pressure while maintaining the rationality of the policy.

Overall, this Federal Reserve meeting is not only about economic policy but also a significant test of its independence. Regardless of the final decision, it will have far-reaching effects on the future trajectory of the U.S. economy. Market participants and policymakers will closely monitor the meeting results and how the Fed is navigating in a complex economic and political environment.