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Bitcoin looks calm on the surface but the data says something very different.
Beneath this sideways price action, long-term holders are quietly distributing while institutional flows hesitate, creating a fragile balance that rarely lasts.
A slight shift in ETF demand, dollar strength, or Fed tone could determine whether this resolves into a squeeze higher or a break lower, and right now, both forces are colliding at a critical level.
Bitcoin log returns (LHS) vs. US dollar strengthens/weakens (RHS).
The on-chain signals that usually move at glacier speed have started to change direction, hinting at a deeper structural turn.
Most investors are watching headlines; the smart money is watching the threshold $BTC can’t afford to lose.