BTC just broke the 105,000 USD threshold, and a leading platform quoted 105,016 USD. Are long positions excited? Don't rush to pop the champagne yet.

You can tell by looking at the perpetual contract holding ratio - short positions 51.66%, long positions 48.34%. Note that short positions still have the advantage. Spot is indeed rising, but the smart money in futures is still hedging, or even adding to short positions. Why? The pits from the previous rounds of upward surges and falls haven't been filled yet, so who dares to go all in at this position.

The real test lies ahead: can it hold above 105,000, and can the trading volume keep up? If the volume shrinks or there's a sudden wave of selling pressure, the stop losses of short-term long positions may be triggered en masse, and the price is likely to retreat back below 104,000 to continue consolidating. From a conservative perspective, the support in the range of 103,500-104,000 is key. Don't let a momentary breakthrough cloud your judgment.