#美国政府关闭 The U.S. government shutdown that lasted for 43 days has finally ended, but the mess left behind is considerable — direct economic losses are about $1.5 trillion, and market confidence? It has long been shattered. The performance of the U.S. stock market on November 13 is the best proof: the Dow fell by 1.65%, and the Nasdaq plummeted by 2.29%. Panic emotions spread among traders like a plague.

The real headache is still ahead. Inside the Federal Reserve, there’s a huge uproar over the issue of interest rate cuts: Hassett from the White House is shouting that a significant cut of 50 basis points must happen in December, while Daly from the San Francisco Fed says it’s "too early" to discuss whether to cut rates in December. Collins from Boston has outright stated that the threshold for continuing to cut rates is "quite high." Just think about it, if even their own people can’t agree, how can the market not be confused?

What’s even more absurd is that the government shutdown directly led to the CPI data for October sinking into oblivion — it's not just a delay in release, but a potential permanent loss. The Federal Reserve is now in a position similar to flying a plane with blindfolds while making decisions. The International Monetary Fund also poured cold water without hesitation: the U.S. economy is already fatigued, and the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is estimated to fall short of previous expectations.

At times like this, going short is the smart move that follows the trend.