Today, there is something noteworthy in the market: $4.1 billion in cryptocurrency options are set to expire, with Bitcoin options accounting for $4.07 billion.

The expiration of options of this scale often brings about short-term volatility in the market.

Why? Because before the Options expiration, all parties in the market will engage in a game around a key price level - the Max Pain Price.

**What is the biggest pain point?**

In simple terms, it is the price point that maximizes the buyer's loss and the seller's profit.

At this price, most Options will become worthless, and the holders will be unable to exercise their rights, while the institutions selling the Options will be able to pocket the premiums.

According to the data, today Bitcoin's biggest pain point is **105,000 USD**, Ethereum is **3,500 USD**.

But what about now? The BTC spot price is hovering around $99,000, which is a full $6,000 short.

**What does this mean?**

This means that if the price remains the same, a large number of call Options with strike prices below $105,000 in the market will expire worthless.

And most of these Options are in the hands of retail investors.

Who will profit from this? The institutions selling these Options – they collected the premiums, and as long as the price is below the strike price, this money is pure profit.

So theoretically, as the expiration approaches, there is a tendency for the price to be pushed towards the maximum pain point. This is not a conspiracy theory, but the profit-driven mechanism of the Options market.

**Looking at market sentiment data:**

The Bitcoin call/put options ratio is 0.62, while Ethereum's is 0.64. A value below 1 indicates that the overall market is still leaning towards bullish sentiment.

In theory, when the bulls are dominant, the price should have upward momentum.

**But the contradiction comes -**

Recently, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $867 million in a single day, setting a record.

Funds are withdrawing, spot is under pressure, and the price naturally cannot rise.

This contradictory state of "bullish sentiment and capital withdrawal" instead provides the main players with greater operational space.

They can take advantage of the window period before the Options expire, using futures and spot to briefly push the price towards a favorable range for themselves.

**So what should we pay attention to next?**

1. Prices may experience irrational fluctuations in the short term, so don't be scared by the violent ups and downs during the day.
2. After the Options expire, the market often returns to being driven by fundamentals, at which point it is the time to judge the real trend.
3. If you hold a short-term contract, the risk is extremely high at this time, and you need to manage your funds well.

The market is not a casino, but at certain moments, it does resemble a meticulously designed game.

What you need to do is to see the rules clearly and not become the one being harvested.