The US Core PCE Price Index annual rate for September suddenly dropped to 2.8%, the lowest in three months! As soon as this data came out, all the market voices worried about an inflation rebound disappeared instantly. The ADP employment data also weakened, showing the job market is clearly cooling off.

Looking at the current situation, the Fed’s focus has quietly shifted—from being laser-focused on inflation in the past two months, to now caring more about employment issues. After two consecutive rate cuts, inflation has remained steady, so another cut in December is almost a done deal. The opportunity in gold may have just begun.

What’s more interesting is the obvious pressure from the US government— the new team urgently needs accommodative policies to support them. The Fed continuing to tighten? There’s basically no reason for that anymore. Plus, with the possibility of a more dovish Fed chair next year, the direction toward easing is already set. There’s a full lineup of bullish news for gold before the end of the year. Keep a close eye on the December dot plot—once the 2026 monetary policy path is clarified, a new round of major moves could be coming.

⚠️ Today the Asian session suddenly went wild, with the price swinging seven or eight points within a minute. The world’s largest gold ETF holdings are also fluctuating, so before Thursday’s rate decision, market volatility will definitely stay high! It’s recommended to play it safe in the early session, wait until the afternoon for stability before entering; take profits before Thursday and don’t get greedy—beware of sudden price swings wiping out your gains.

**What about the technicals?**

On the four-hour chart, MACD is running steadily above the zero line with a clear uptrend. The 4168 to 4110 range is strong support—a pullback is an opportunity.

Looking at the hourly chart, the market is currently in a choppy consolidation phase. The 4190-4195 support zone is a good place to consider going long, with 4230 as a resistance level, but the probability of a breakout is quite high. As long as 4152 isn’t breached below, the outlook remains bullish.

Gold is now at a key position: rate cut expectations are in place, policy tailwinds are supporting, and the technicals are aligning. If you miss this wave, you may have to wait a long time for the next. The 4152-4195 range is a good area to build positions—follow the market rhythm, and after breaking 4230, the next target is 4300.