#以太坊行情技术解读 The Secret of Super Marathon Champions: The Least Decelerated Person Wins in the End

Some athletes have summarized a seemingly simple but heartening truth—the winner in super marathons is often not the fastest runner, but the one who brakes the least.

Why? Physics has long provided the answer. Decelerating = loss of kinetic energy. Just like driving, sudden braking consumes the most fuel when restarting. The same applies to investing and work—frequent pauses, adjustments, starting over, and redoing things incur huge costs.

From a mathematical perspective, this is called the volatility trap. Large drawdowns significantly lower the compound return rate. The essence of "braking the least" is actually controlling volatility.

Even more ruthless is competitive psychology—stable individuals exert pressure on opponents. Someone who can consistently perform steadily has already made others give up.

Therefore, maintaining system continuity is far more powerful than trying to burst out with temporary explosive power.

**The Inspiration of the "20-Mile Rule"**

There is a classic case in Antarctic exploration. Amundsen had an ironclad rule: walk 20 miles every day. Good weather? He would definitely not go further. Bad weather? Also not more. By sticking to this mechanical routine, he ultimately won the life-and-death contest. This embodies the extreme philosophy of linear endurance athletes.

But there are no absolute truths in this world. Nobel laureate in economics, Richard Thaler, studied New York taxi drivers and found a counterexample.

**Thaler’s "Rational Worker" Dilemma**

These drivers have a fixed mindset: the goal today is to earn enough X dollars and then go home. Rainy days with full taxis? No matter, earn enough and stop immediately. Sunny days with no business? Force themselves to keep working.

Thaler says this is a big mistake. The truly rational approach should be: on rainy days when there are many customers and few cars, work overtime to earn as much as possible; on sunny days with no business, it’s better to go home early and rest, saving energy for the next rainy day.

Two completely opposite ideas. But the key is—they are facing fundamentally different worlds.

**Linear vs Nonlinear: Environment Determines Strategy**

Amundsen’s world is linear: each step is equivalent, and the cumulative effect is the final result. So maintaining a steady pace is optimal. This logic applies to: fitness (each workout adds up), reading (accumulating knowledge page by page), early-stage entrepreneurship (building a foundation step by step).

Thaler’s world is nonlinear: the value of good opportunities and bad opportunities is completely unequal. A rainy day’s earnings might match a week’s worth of normal days. So the distribution is uneven—less work during bad times, aggressive pursuit during good times is the best strategy. This logic applies to: trading, investing, high-risk startups.

**Consensus Among the Masters**

Warren Buffett has a classic saying: "In investing, when you have nothing to do, it’s best to do nothing." He is talking about the wisdom of the nonlinear world—actions are not always equivalent at all times. Holding cash and waiting is more advanced than rushing around.

George Soros is more aggressive. His logic is: when a truly good opportunity arises, you should heavily leverage and go all in. Not all money should be spread out. Facing the big trend, concentrating your firepower maximizes returns.

The trend of $BTC reflects this. During bear markets, a slower pace is fine, but once the trend is established, you should jump in. Hesitation and "diversification" often mean actively surrendering.

**How to Choose? It Depends on Your Arena**

If you are in a "linear accumulation" field—creating content, iterating products, improving skills—then learn from Amundsen: 20 miles a day, never stop. Continuity itself is a competitive advantage.

If you are in a "uneven opportunity distribution" field—trading, financing, negotiations—then learn from Thaler and Soros: stay low-profile when needed, seize opportunities with full force when they come.

In reality, most people need to do some endurance-based tasks and also make nonlinear decisions at critical moments. The challenge is not the theory but the ability to switch quickly between these two modes.

Recognizing people and situations is the ultimate investment and life philosophy.