The RMB appreciation wave continues to intensify, with Goldman Sachs predicting it will strengthen again by 2026.

As global central banks adjust their policies, the internationalization of the Renminbi is迎來 a new development opportunity. Goldman Sachs’s latest analysis指出， based on current policy orientation and economic fundamentals, the Renminbi against the US dollar is expected to reach the 7.0 integer level before the end of the year, and then continue to appreciate to the 6.85 level next year.

Renminbi Appreciation Momentum Has Become Market Consensus

From the latest exchange rate data, the pace of Renminbi appreciation is accelerating. The CFETS Renminbi Exchange Rate Index has risen to 98.22, hitting this year’s high; USD/CNY has fallen to 7.0824, and USD/CNH has fallen to 7.0779, both reaching a new low for the year. Behind these figures reflects the market’s general optimism about the Renminbi’s outlook.

Led by the Central Bank, Policy Synergy Promotes Appreciation

Renminbi appreciation is not accidental. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the daily midpoint mechanism, precisely guiding within the exchange rate fluctuation band, while state-owned banks frequently intervene in the foreign exchange market to buy US dollars, forming a policy synergy. This steady and orderly appreciation approach is sending a clear signal to the market: the consensus is that the Renminbi is stable and strong.

Economists believe that this policy orientation is similar to the choice made by the Renminbi during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998—when the Renminbi refused to join the wave of devaluation, thereby establishing its regional currency status. Today, by demonstrating appreciation and stability, China is laying the foundation for the Renminbi’s internationalization.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Support the Renminbi

On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve’s gradual rate-cutting policy is creating space for the Renminbi to appreciate. As the US dollar index comes under pressure, the attractiveness of Renminbi appreciation becomes more evident. In comparison, in 2018, the Renminbi depreciated about 5% amid trade frictions, whereas by 2025, it has appreciated nearly 3% so far, showing a clear contrast.

Accelerating Internationalization and Record Trading Volumes

The progress of Renminbi internationalization is fully reflected in the foreign exchange market. Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that the daily average trading volume of USD/RMB has increased to 781 billion USD, nearly 60% higher than the last survey in 2022, accounting for over 8% of total global foreign exchange trading. This indicates that more and more international participants are willing to use Renminbi for transactions.

Industry insiders point out that demonstrating Renminbi’s stability and strength in turbulent market environments is itself the best proof of its internationalization. As more transactions are priced in Renminbi, the currency increasingly exhibits characteristics of an international currency.

Outlook: Renminbi Internationalization Has Become a Policy Priority

Behind Goldman Sachs’s forecast is a deep interpretation of China’s policy intentions. In the coming years, the internationalization of the Renminbi will become an important policy focus for authorities, and the appreciation expectations are likely to further enhance market participation. As the role of the Renminbi in international trade and finance continues to grow, this trend is expected to accelerate significantly.